Variable | Best Estimate | Sensitivity Test Range | Minimum Performance to Achieve the 4% PM10 Emission Reduction Target | Sensitivity Tests Result (Change in % Emission Reductions) | |
Failure cut-points | 75% of the baseline emission rates | 60% - 100% of the baseline emission rates | N/A | 11.1% - 9.8% | |
Program participation rate | 90% | 0-100% | >30% | 0.6% - 11.7% | |
Problem vehicle identification rate | 50% | >17% | 0.6% - 20.6% | ||
Effectiveness of failed vehicle repairs | Percent of repair work initially effective | 72% | >22% | 1.1% - 14.3% | |
Percent of excess emissions reduced by good repairs | 81% | >25% | 1.1% - 12.9% | ||
Percent of good repairs that remain durable | 86.5% | >26% | 1.1% - 12.1% | ||
Failed vehicle illegal operation rate | 10% for buses and heavy trucks; 20% for light trucks and motorcycles | <75% | 1.1% - 12.6% | ||
Vehicle population growth | 10% decrease in average annual growth rate under the baseline scenario | 0% - 30% decrease in average annual growth rate | N/A | 10.1% - 11.6% |