Lab 4

Stochastic Modelling of Uncertainties

Modelling different types of uncertainties. Using the StatRes tool.

L7

Experimental Design and Variance Reduction

Some more advanced issues.

Lab 5

Time handling and its problems

Brings insight to how the model is updated timestep by timestep, and some problems with this approach.

L8

The Modelling project

Describes the strict requirements for a modelling and simulation project.

L9

Simulation vs. Speculation

Discusses the use and limitations of modelling and simulation. The use of simulation as a crystal ball to predict the future must be condemned, not to cause false, dangerous and costly conclusions.

Exam.

Examination (if required). The main examination is completed laboratory exercises.

A possible examination should focus on basic concepts, understanding, how to perform a modelling project, the use and limitations of simulation. Further, the strict distinction between system under study and model, and the understanding where information comes from is crucial.

Book

Suggested book: “Thinking in Systems: A Primer” by Donella Meadows [11] .

Project

In a postgraduate course, a Modelling Project can be included.