Model 1

Model 2

Model 3

b

(S.E.)

b

(S.E.)

b

(S.E.)

Scandal

−9.12

(1.92)^***

−9.02

(1.92)^***

−9.60

(1.88)^***

Misery Index

−1.03

(0.33)^***

−1.14

(0.39)^***

CSI

0.26

(0.07)^***

0.21

(0.07)^***

Honeymoon Period

2.28

(0.93)^**

2.06

(1.06)^*

1.92

(1.06)^*

Divided Government

4.00

(1.62)^**

2.92

(1.89)

3.09

(1.82)^*

Korean War

−4.12

(3.07)

Vietnam War

0.52

(2.78)

0.50

(2.74)

−1.01

(2.62)

Gulf War (1990-1991)

0.70

(3.22)

−0.06

(3.25)

0.70

(3.23)

Constant

64.53

(3.97)^***

32.86

(6.16)^***

49.00

(8.53)^***

Rho

0.91

0.90

0.88

Num. of Obs.

624

492

492

F

10.17

^***

11.69

^***

12.3

^***

Adj. R2

0.09

0.12

0.14

Durbin-Watson

Original

0.26

0.31

0.30

Transformed

1.98

2.04

2.01