Panel A

(1)

OLS

(2)

FE

(3)

GMM-diff

Payout reduction

−0.244*

−0.231*

−0.147

(0.138)

(0.138)

(0.091)

Pay-out Reduction x Shipping Recessions

0.518**

0.542**

0.322*

(0.210)

(0.216)

(0.181)

Shipping Recessions

−0.060***

−0.078***

−0.075**

(0.013)

(0.012)

(0.031)

Growth opportunities

0.038***

0.028***

0.014**

(0.012)

(0.008)

(0.006)

Leverage_t−1

0.211***

0.317***

0.429***

(0.027)

(0.045)

(0.064)

Cash Flow

0.358***

0.347***

0.145*

(0.079)

(0.100)

(0.080)

Capex_t−1

0.321***

0.190***

0.091***

(0.049)

(0.051)

(0.034)

Constant

−0.040***

−0.061***

(0.011)

(0.022)

Observations

1863

1863

1863

R-squared

0.300

0.251

Firm fixed effects

NO

YES

YES

Panel B:

(1)

OLS

(2)

FE

(3)

GMM−diff

Payout reduction

−0.230

−0.211

−0.331*

(0.140)

(0.171)

(0.180)

Pay-out Reduction x US Recessions

0.658**

0.566*

0.916*

(0.282)

(0.290)

(0.535)

US Recessions

0.000

−0.001

−0.020

(0.015)

(0.009)

(0.041)

Growth opportunities

0.038***

0.030***

0.039**

(0.012)

(0.009)

(0.016)

Leverage_t−1

0.212***

0.301***

0.287***

(0.027)

(0.039)

(0.073)

Cash Flow

0.354***

0.417***

0.241**

(0.079)

(0.091)

(0.110)

Capex_t−1

0.319***

0.238***

0.042

(0.049)

(0.050)

(0.044)

Constant

−0.040***

−0.080***

(0.011)

(0.020)

Observations

1863

1863

1863

R-squared

0.300

0.366

Firm fixed effects

NO

YES

YES