sn

MODEL

log likelihood

Akaike info criterion (AIC)

Model Rank

1

MA(1)

−719.33

1444.66

3

2

MA(2)

−710.43

1428.87

6

3

MA(3)

−697.68

1405.37

12

4

MA(4)

−695.54

1403.08

11

5

MA(5)

−693.31

1400.63

10

6

MA(6)

−692.15

1400.31

13

7

AR(1)

−694.55

1395.1

5

8

ARMA(1, 1)

−692.79

1393.58

2

9

ARMA(1, 2)

−692.63

1395.27

7

10

ARMA(1, 3)

−691.16

1394.33

4

11

ARMA(1, 4)

−690.78

1395.57

8

12

ARMA(1, 5)

−689.83

1395.66

16

13

ARMA(1, 6)

−689.73

1397.46

17

14

SARIMA(1, 0, 1) (1, 0, 1)12

−690.59

1393.17

1*

15

SARIMA(1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 2)12

−690.35

1396.7

15

16

SARIMA(1, 0, 3) (1, 0, 3)12

−688.04

1396.08

18

17

SARIMA(1, 0, 4) (1, 0, 4)12

−687.79

1399.58

14

18

SARIMA(1, 0, 5) (1, 0, 5)12

−687.19

1402.38

19

19

SARIMA(1, 0, 6) (1, 0, 6)12

−687.08

1406.16

9