2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Annual growth rate (%)

Following China’s development path

Population (Mill.)

616

1136

1784

2488

3361

4515

5852

7516

7.4

GDP per capita (US$ PPP)

92

96

99

101

103

104

104

104

0.3

Primary energy supply (Mtsce)

6662

11,785

17,963

24,518

32,620

43,391

56,057

72,298

7.0

CO₂-emissions (Mt)

105

211

343

485

661

894

1175

1532

8.0

CO₂-emissions per capita (t)

207

463

790

1148

1601

2212

2927

3826

8.7

CO₂-emissions per GDP (t/1000 US$ PPP)

2.2

4.8

8.0

11.3

15.5

21.3

28.0

36.8

8.3

CO₂-intensity of primary energy supply (t CO₂/t PES)

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.5

0.7

Not following China’s development path

Population (Mill.)

547

776

1091

1525

2123

2947

4083

5648

6.9

GDP per capita (US$ PPP)

92

96

99

101

103

104

104

104

0.3

Primary energy supply (Mtsce)

5922

8052

10,981

15,025

20,603

28,324

39,108

54,326

6.5

CO₂-emissions (Mt)

91

132

191

274

391

556

789

1120

7.4

CO₂-emissions per capita (t)

143

191

258

351

479

655

902

1250

6.4

CO₂-emissions per GDP (t/1000 US$ PPP)

1.5

2.0

2.6

3.5

4.6

6.3

8.6

12.0

6.0

CO₂-intensity of primary energy supply (t CO₂/t PES)

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

−0.9