Jovanovic (2014)

78 countries (2011-2012; consolidation period)

The investment multipliers in the highly-indebted countries are more than one (1.7). Investment multiplier is likely to be higher in countries with high public debt than in countries with not-so-high public debt

Papaioannou (2016)

For each EU country (Quarterly time series datasets 1995-2015)

The responses of output after a public investment shock are not uniform across EU countries and vary significantly. It range from −2.72 (Lithuania) to 2.08 (Germany)

Ilzetzki et al. (2013)

High income countries (1960-2007)

Positive “pure’’ public investment shock. Multiplier on impact 0.4

Positive “pure’’ public investment shock. Cumulative spending multiplier 1.5 after 5 years

Pereira and Pereira (2017)

Portugal (1978-2012)

Effects of one-percentage point, one-time shocks in the rates of growth of the different types of infrastructure investment (marginal products): National roads 6.72; Municipal Roads—1.81; Highways 1; Railroads 2.62; Ports 4.66; Airports 18.43; Health 3.91; Educational 6.01; Water 2.11; Petroleum 0.39; Electricity and Gas 0.35; Telecommunications 4.44

Effects of one-percentage point, one-time shocks in the rates of growth of the different types of infrastructure investment (marginal products): National roads 5.70; Municipal Roads 1.02; Highways 3.55; Railroads 11.36; Ports 9.75; Airports 26.52; Health 16.54; Educational 10.04; Water 4.80; Petroleum 3.05; Electricity and Gas 0.40; Telecommunications 10.70

Fournier (2016)

OECD countries (2009-2013)

Positive effects of public investment on potential growth rate of GDP per capita. Coefficient is equal to 0.098

Effects of public investment on potential growth rate of GDP per capita:

Increasing the share of public investment in primary spending by 1% (offset by a reduction in other spending) would increase the long-term GDP level by about 5% Public investment is a lever to boost growth in the long run

RBC models

Baxter and King (1983)

United States

Multiplier of permanent increase in government purchases: >1 on GDP

Multiplier of permanent increase in government purchases: >1 on GDP

Mazraani (2010)

United States (1955-2008)

A 1% increase in government investment: increase private investment by 0.04% and output by 0.0085%

Output elasticity with respect to public capital of 0.0085

Production Function Approach

Aschauer (1989)

United States (1949-1985)

The production function includes public capital. It is found a strong positive effects of the public capital stock, and in particular of core infrastructure. The estimated elasticity for the core infrastructure is equals to 0.24. A 1% increase in the ratio of public to private capital stocks raises total factor productivity by 0.39%. Crowding-in effect dominates the crowding-out effect

DGSE—NK models

OECD— Economic Outlook (2009)

OECD countries

A 1% of GDP increase in government investment is near to 0.8 (first quarter)

A 1% of GDP increase in government investment is over to 1.4 (after 40 quarter)