| Models/Approach/ Analysis | Authors | Countries/ case studies | Main Results | |
| Short Term | Long Term | |||
| Meta-regression studies | | Advanced countries | Multiplier on capital spending depends on the size and openness of the surveyed country. It ranges between 0.5 to 1.8 |
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| | 104 studies (1992-2012) | Effects on GDP growth of investment multiplier is higher than the consumption multiplier |
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| MACRO models (NiGEM, FF, FM, OECD interlink, NAWM, GIMF and EAGLE) | | OECD countries | An increase in the public investment of 0.5% of GDP (temporary deficit-financed in the short term; fixed interest rates) raise output by 0.4% - 0.6% in the first year on average in the large advanced countries | Permanent increase in public investment of 0.5 % of GDP: 1) increases long-term output by about 2% (FM model) 2) raise output in the long term by 1.8% on average in OECD countries and 1.6% in the large advanced economies (F&F model) 3) long-term impact on output, around 0.5% on average in the large advanced economies (NiGEM model) |
| | Advanced and emerging market economies (2013-2023) | For advanced economies: a 1% of GDP increase in public investment increases output by about 2% in the same year For emerging market: a 1% of GDP increase in public investment increases output less than 1% in the same year | For advanced economies: a 1% of GDP increase in public investment determines an output declines in the third year after the shock (as monetary policy normalizes) then it increases to 2.5% over the long term because of the resulting higher stock of public capital For emerging market: with a 1% of GDP increase in public investment output remains more or less stable in the six year after the shock, then it increases to 1.3% over the long term. The debt-to-GDP ratio increases, by about 4 percentage points of GDP in the five years after the shock, after which it is stabilized | |
| | Large euro area country (Germany) Rest of Euro area | An increase of public investment equal to 1% of the initial GDP over 20 quarters (debt-financed) determines a positive impact equal to 1.5 on GDP for Germany and around to 0.5 on GDP for Rest of Euro Area (year 1 - 2 average) | An increase of public investment equal to 1% of the initial GDP over 20 quarters (debt-financed) determines a positive impact equal to 1.7 on GDP for Germany and less than 0.1 on GDP for Rest of Euro Area (after 10 years) | |
| VAR and other empirical analysis models | | United States (1947-2008) | An 1$ increase in investment spending determines a cumulative investment multiplier equal to: 1) 2.39 (linear model); 2) 3.42 in recession; 3) 2.27 in expansion |
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| | United States (1960-1997) | Increase government spending: 0.9 (first quarter –maximum value) and 0.55 (after one year) | Increase government spending: 0.66 (after five years) | |
| | United States (1939-2008) | Increase government spending in response to military events: 1.1 - 1.2 on GDP (first year) |
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| | United States— state level (1990-2010) | Highway spending shocks positively affect GDP: multipliers range between 1 and 3 on impact | Highway spending shocks positively affect GDP: multipliers range between 3 and 7 at six to eight years after the shocks | |