Cycle Number

Period

Duration (years); main events

1

1743-1753

11 Austrian succession War 1740-48

2

1754-1774

21

3

1775-1791

17 USA war 1775-83

4

1791-1825

35

5

1792-1813

22 Napoleon’s wars

6

1821-1836

16

7

1837-1852

16 Average cycle = ~20 years (19.7)

8

1873-1879

7 USA Civil war 1861-1865

9

1880-1886

7

10

1889-1897

9

11

1898-1910

13

12

1911-1913

3 1^st World War

13

1921-1925

5

14

1926-1937

12Worldwide depression 1929-1933; trade collapsed 1931-34; 14 m GRT of ships laid up in 1932

14a

1939-1946

8 2^nd World war 1939-1944;

Average cycle = 8 years

15

1945-1951

7 Korean war: early 1950

16

1952-1955

4 Vietnam war: 07/05/1954; 1^st Suez Canal closure: end-October 1956

17

1957-1969

13 Suez Canal reopened April 1957; Cuban war: 1959-1962. 1967 Six days War Israel-Egypt; Suez Canal 2^nd closure: 1967; oil crisis

18

1970-1972

3

19

1973-1978

6 Oil crisis: end-1973; Yom Kippur war end 1973; Suez Canal re-opened June-1975; Vietnam war ended (30/04/1975).

20

1979-1987

9 Iranian revolution 1979; Iran-Iraq war (1982); 1981-1987 dry cargo ships depression

21

1988-2002

15 Iraq war with Kuwait 1990; 1997 Asian econ. crisis; Dot.com crisis 2001

22

2003-2007

5 China’s boom

23

2008-2013

6 Sub-prime house bank loans

24

2020-2021

1 Covid-19

Average cycle = 6.9 years ~7