Year | t | Actual Sheep Number | Exponential Model | Linear Regression Model | ||
Prediction | Absolute Error | Prediction | Absolute Error | |||
2002 | 0 | 1,433,320 | 1,484,090 | 3.54 | 1,484,090 | 3.54 |
2003 | 1 | 1,476,450 | 1,560,181 | 5.67 | 1,581,851 | 7.14 |
2004 | 2 | 1,529,100 | 1,640,173 | 7.26 | 1,679,613 | 9.84 |
2005 | 3 | 1,890,450 | 1,724,267 | 8.79 | 1,777,374 | 5.98 |
2006 | 4 | 1,971,510 | 1,812,672 | 8.06 | 1,875,136 | 4.89 |
2007 | 5 | 2,251,440 | 1,905,609 | 15.36 | 1,972,897 | 12.37 |
2008 | 6 | 2,493,360 | 2,003,312 | 19.65 | 2,070,659 | 16.95 |
2009 | 7 | 2,070,930 | 2,106,024 | 1.69 | 2,168,420 | 4.71 |
2010 | 8 | 2,175,680 | 2,214,002 | 1.76 | 2,266,182 | 4.16 |
2011 | 9 | 2,264,630 | 2,327,516 | 2.78 | 2,363,943 | 4.39 |
2012 | 10 | 2,233,970 | 2,446,851 | 9.53 | 2,461,705 | 10.19 |
2013 | 11 | 2,311,150 | 2,572,303 | 11.30 | 2,559,466 | 10.74 |
2014 | 12 | 2,680,260 | 2,704,188 | 0.89 | 2,657,228 | 0.86 |
2015 | 13 | 2,596,450 | 2,842,835 | 9.49 | 2,754,989 | 6.11 |
2016 | 14 | 3,198,930 | 2,988,590 | 6.58 | 2,852,751 | 10.82 |
Mean absolute percentage error |
| 7.49 |
| 7.51 |