Year

t

Actual Sheep Number

Exponential Model

Linear Regression Model

Prediction

Absolute Error

Prediction

Absolute Error

2002

0

1,433,320

1,484,090

3.54

1,484,090

3.54

2003

1

1,476,450

1,560,181

5.67

1,581,851

7.14

2004

2

1,529,100

1,640,173

7.26

1,679,613

9.84

2005

3

1,890,450

1,724,267

8.79

1,777,374

5.98

2006

4

1,971,510

1,812,672

8.06

1,875,136

4.89

2007

5

2,251,440

1,905,609

15.36

1,972,897

12.37

2008

6

2,493,360

2,003,312

19.65

2,070,659

16.95

2009

7

2,070,930

2,106,024

1.69

2,168,420

4.71

2010

8

2,175,680

2,214,002

1.76

2,266,182

4.16

2011

9

2,264,630

2,327,516

2.78

2,363,943

4.39

2012

10

2,233,970

2,446,851

9.53

2,461,705

10.19

2013

11

2,311,150

2,572,303

11.30

2,559,466

10.74

2014

12

2,680,260

2,704,188

0.89

2,657,228

0.86

2015

13

2,596,450

2,842,835

9.49

2,754,989

6.11

2016

14

3,198,930

2,988,590

6.58

2,852,751

10.82

Mean absolute percentage error

7.49

7.51