Payback Periods and uncertainties

Base Case 1

Base Case 2

Road traffic income/volume

Femern A/S (2014b)

DIW Econ GmbH (2015b)

Tunnel construction costs excl. reserves (DKK billion)

40.5

49.4

EU subsidies (DKK billion)

10.3

4.4

Base Case Payback Period (Years)

37

>60

Likelihood of Payback Period in green zone

7.5%

0.0%

Likelihood of Payback Period in yellow zone

55.9%

12.3%

Likelihood of Payback Period in red zone

36.6%

87.7%

Worst and Best Case (Years)

[37; >60]

[48; >60]