Risks

Average

cost

Prob

(n = 2)

Expectation

Grants

(50%)

Premium

to pay

Wild animals

348,947

0.192

67,141

33,570

33,570

Wild ducks

252,567

0.191

48,157

24,079

24,079

Desert Locust

190, 409

0.183

34,824

17,412

17,412

Rainfall deficit

100,430

0.197

19,817

9909

9909

Flood

225,490

0.033

7500

3750

3750

Aphid invasions

108,000

0.184

19,865

9933

9933

Sanitary risks

3,416,935

0.020

67,919

33,960

33 960

Grain-eating birds

614,873

0.224

137,425

68,712

68,712

Risk

Average

cost

Prob (n = 1)

Expectation

Grants

(50%)

Premium

to pay

Wild animals

348,947

0.327

114,206

57,103

57103

Wild ducks

252,567

0.160

40,478

20,239

20239

Desert Locust

190,409

0.366

69,644

34,822

34,822

Rainfall deficit

100,430

0.123

12,359

6179

6179

Flood

225,490

0.014

3215

1607

1607

Aphid invasions

108,000

0.368

39,731

19,865

19,865

Sanitary risks

3,416,935

0.006

18,964

9482

9482

Grain-eating birds

614,873

0.224

137,746

68,873

68,873