Planned Value

exponential model

delayed S-shaped model

infection S-shaped model

parameter

$\alpha$

2.867 × 10⁵

9.283 × 10⁵

1.859 × 10⁶

$\beta$

3.327 × 10⁻²

2.293 × 10⁻²

3.352 × 10⁻²

c

-

-

1.984 × 10¹

$\sigma$

2.361 × 10⁻²

7.504 × 10⁻⁴

7.577 × 10⁻⁴

AIC

798.191

647.075

709.147