Planned Value

exponential model

delayed S-shaped model

infection S-shaped model

parameter

α

2.867 × 105

9.283 × 105

1.859 × 106

β

3.327 × 10−2

2.293 × 10−2

3.352 × 10−2

c

-

-

1.984 × 101

σ

2.361 × 10−2

7.504 × 10−4

7.577 × 10−4

AIC

798.191

647.075

709.147