Variable

Acronym

Description

Source

Monetary Policy Instrument

SELIC

Interest rate—accumulated Selic in the annualized month base 252 (% per annum).

BCB (2017)

Indicator of economic activity

GDP

Monthly GDP from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV)

FGV (2017)

Exchange rate

ER

Exchange Rate—Free—US Dollar (purchase)—End of Period—Monthly (R$/US$)—Code 3695

BCB (2017)

Domestic Inflation

BCPI

Brazilian National Consumer Price Index—IPCA (index number based 100 = Dec/93)

IBGE (2017)

Expected inflation

EI

Expectation of the official inflation rate (IPCA)—expected for the end of the following month at the beginning of the current month—monthly median (% per month).

BCB (2017)

Free Credit

FC

Total credit balance with free credit (R$ million, deflated by the IPCA)—Code 12,130 (from Jan/2003 to Feb/2007, whose percentage variation was used to retropolate using code 20,542) and code 20,542/from Mar/2007 to May/2016).

BCB (2017)

Directed credit

DC

Total credit balance with directed credit (R$ million, deflated by the IPCA)—Code 7524 (from Jan/2003 to Feb/2007, whose percentage variation was used to retropolate using code 20593) and code 20593.

BCB (2017)

Long-term interest rate

SWAP

Reference rate—swaps—pre-fixed DI—360 days—end of period (% per year).

IPEADATA (2017)

Country Risk

EMBI

EMBI +/Brazil-risk end of period (in base points).

JP Morgan (2017)

External Inflation

CPI

All Commodity Price Index, includes both Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indexes (index number based on 100 = 2005, modified for natural logarithm).

FMI (2017)

International basic interest rate

FFR

Effective Federal Funds Rate (% pa).

Fed St. Louis (2017)