Variable | Acronym | Description | Source |
Monetary Policy Instrument | SELIC | Interest rate—accumulated Selic in the annualized month base 252 (% per annum). | BCB (2017) |
Indicator of economic activity | GDP | Monthly GDP from the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) | FGV (2017) |
Exchange rate | ER | Exchange Rate—Free—US Dollar (purchase)—End of Period—Monthly (R$/US$)—Code 3695 | BCB (2017) |
Domestic Inflation | BCPI | Brazilian National Consumer Price Index—IPCA (index number based 100 = Dec/93) | IBGE (2017) |
Expected inflation | EI | Expectation of the official inflation rate (IPCA)—expected for the end of the following month at the beginning of the current month—monthly median (% per month). | BCB (2017) |
Free Credit | FC | Total credit balance with free credit (R$ million, deflated by the IPCA)—Code 12,130 (from Jan/2003 to Feb/2007, whose percentage variation was used to retropolate using code 20,542) and code 20,542/from Mar/2007 to May/2016). | BCB (2017) |
Directed credit | DC | Total credit balance with directed credit (R$ million, deflated by the IPCA)—Code 7524 (from Jan/2003 to Feb/2007, whose percentage variation was used to retropolate using code 20593) and code 20593. | BCB (2017) |
Long-term interest rate | SWAP | Reference rate—swaps—pre-fixed DI—360 days—end of period (% per year). | IPEADATA (2017) |
Country Risk | EMBI | EMBI +/Brazil-risk end of period (in base points). | JP Morgan (2017) |
External Inflation | CPI | All Commodity Price Index, includes both Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indexes (index number based on 100 = 2005, modified for natural logarithm). | FMI (2017) |
International basic interest rate | FFR | Effective Federal Funds Rate (% pa). | Fed St. Louis (2017) |