Algeria

Egypt

South Africa

Energy variable:

Corresponding ARDL:

Coal

(2,0,2,1,0)

Oil

(1,0,2,1,1)

Elec

(1,0,0,2,1)

Natgas

(1,0,0,00)

Coal

(2,0,0,2,0)

Oil

(2,0,0,1,0)

Elec

(2,0,2,2,0)

Natgas

(2,0,0,1,0)

Coal

(2,0,10,1,0)

Oil

(1,2,1,0,0)

Elec

(2,0,2,1,2)

Natgas

(1,2,1,0,2)

Long run coefficients

Lngdpc

1.361***

(0.176)

0.036

(0.210)

0.012

(0.150)

0.667***

(0.069)

1.086***

(0.039)

0.750***

(0.093)

0.366**

(0.193)

0.987***

(0.097)

0.528***

(0.143)

0.529***

(0.177)

0.475***

(0.150)

0.537***

(0.123)

Lnener

0.093***

(0.019)

0.953***

(0.105)

0.201**

(0.089)

0.328***

(0.014)

0.039

(0.027)

0.253**

(0.067)

0.409**

(0.155)

0.019

(0.017)

0.889*

(0.445)

0.553**

(0.232)

0.134**

(0.056)

0.039**

(0.017)

Lnurb

0.869***

(0.143)

0.468**

(0.205)

1.688**

(0.226)

0.341***

(0.056)

2.913***

(0.804)

1.482*

(0.818)

3.940**

(0.811)

2.714***

(0.850)

0.206

(0.174)

0.090

(0.444)

0.185

(0.142)

0.082

(0.296)

Lntrad

−0.246**

(0.107)

−0.152*

(0.076)

−1.193***

(0.053)

−0.128***

(0.034)

0.004

(0.040)

0.047

(0.034)

0.001

(0.037)

0.020

(0.038)

0.210**

(0.084)

0.242***

(0.087)

0.240***

0.082)

0.176**

(0.076)

C

−12.940***

(1.077)

0.790

(1.872)

0.473

(1.286)

−0.572

(0.490)

−18.705

(2.980)

−11.78***

(3.291)

−19.94***

(2.809)

−17.44***

(3.427)

−3.947

(0.913)

−3.832***

(1.096)

−2.774***

(1.011)

−3.782***

(1.347)

Adj-R²

0.937

0.967

0.981

0.993

0.983

0.987

0.986

0.983

0.740

0.716

0.750

0.856

J-B (Prob)

0.196 (0.906)

1.974 (0.372)

1.491 (0.164)

1.165 (0.558)

1.739 (0.419)

0.356 (0.836)

0.294 (0.863)

1.417 (0.492)

1.226 (0.568)

0.954 (0.854)

2.651 (0.354)

1.298 (0.304)

B-G (Prob)

1.230 (0.228)

1.029 (0.195)

1.141 (0.091)

2.025 (0.145)

1.405 (0.092)

1.806 (0.086)

1.103 (0.061)

1.224 (0.817)

2.198 (0.103)

1.766 (0.486)

0.601 (0.401)

0.371 (0.851)

B-P (Prob)

1.191 (0.237)

0.674 (0.776)

1.878 (0.133)

1.345 (0.060)

1.427 (0.387)

0.150 (0.980)

0.402 (0.580)

1.633 (0.184)

0.823 (0.518)

0.534 (0.711)

1.090 (0.374)

1.040 (0.402)

Short run coefficients

ECT (−1)

−0.149*

(0.087)

−0.328***

(0.104)

−0.498***

(0.122)

−0.615***

(0.137)

−0.399***

(0.127)

−0.344***

(0.119)

−0.417***

(0.143)

−0.381***

(0.127)

−0.389***

(0.124)

−0.374***

(0.129)

−0.463***

(0.128)

−0.618***

(0.174)

Δ(lngdpc)

0.501**

(0.200)

0.330*

(0.182)

0.195

(0.180)

0.385***

(0.129)

0.706***

(0.236)

0.258

(0.218)

0.421***

(0.162)

0.662**

(0.284)

0.487***

(0.129)

0.653**

(0.318)

0.733**

(0.305)

0.991***

(0.292)

Δ(lnener)

0.040***

(0.014)

0.644***

(0.137)

0.590***

(0.127)

0.306****

(0.038)

0.014

(0.043)

0.480***

(0.106)

0.275***

(0.064)

0.012

(0.023)

0.252**

(0.123)

0.880***

(0.178)

0.192**

(0.082)

0.431***

(0.089)

Δ(lnurb)

0.977

(1.975)

4.068**

(1.841)

0.566

(1.515)

0.289

(1.119)

3.101

(1.968)

1.655

(1.678)

2.758

(1.920)

3.011

(1.956)

1.328

(1.798)

−0.718

(1.838)

−1.164

(2.056)

−0.115

(2.815)

Δ(lntrad)

−0.10***

(0.073)

−0.070

(0.061)

−0.116*

(0.059)

−0.136***

(0.045)

0.039

(0.046)

0.044

(0.034)

0.021

(0.043)

0.047

(0.042)

0.107

(0.082)

0.088

(0.088)

0.071

(0.084)

0.026

(0.077)

C

0.017

(0.028)

−0.049*

(0.027)

0.00002

(0.022)

0.013

(0.016)

0.009

(0.008)

0.002

(0007)

0.004

(0.010)

0.008

(0.008)

−0.014

(0.0147)

0.002

(0.015)

0.011

(0.016)

−0.004

(0.023)

Adj-R²

0.245

0.458

0.503

0.706

0.349

0.566

0.397

0.355

0.357

0.234

0.309

0.407

J-B (Prob)

4.479 (0.106)

0.999 (0.606)

3.518 (0.172)

0.449 (0.798)

2.580 (0.275)

0.021 (0.989)

0.572 (0.479)

2.408 (0.299)

0.026 (0.987)

0.288 (0.865)

0.213 (0.213)

0.222 (0.894)

B-G (Prob)

1.942 (0.126)

0.120 (0.864)

2.268 (0.084)

0.309 (0.689)

0.310 (0.688)

0.034 (0.959)

0.494 (0.250)

0.267 (0.766)

0.976 (0.386)

1.057 (0.358)

1.427 (0.253)

0.332 (0.719)

B-P (Prob)

1.861 (0.266)

1.842 (0.136)

0.579 (0.764)

1.345 (0.305)

1.284 (0.310)

9.016 (0.108)

2.200 (0.089)

1.503 (0.211)

1.329 (0.272)

1.880 (0.120)

1.714 (0.831)

0.483 (0.785)

CUSUM

Unstable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

CUSUMSQ

Stable

Unstable

Unstable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

Stable

unstable