Models

(p, d, q) (P, D, Q)

σ²

signif. par.

AIC

BIC

ME

MAE

RMSE

ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) [12] monthly rainfall series

Louga

(0, 1, 2) (2, 1, 3)

822.8

6/7

6919.39

6956.01

0.8

15.87

28.28

Podor

(0, 2, 2) (3, 1, 1)

578.6

4/6

6691.12

6723.15

−0.11

13.9

23.72

Saint Louis

(0, 1, 1) (2, 1, 2)

855.3

3/5

6958.13

6985.59

0.57

15.16

28.88

min rain

(3, 0, 1) (2, 1, 0)

413.6

4/6

6396.18

6428.23

−0.12

8.48

20.11

max rain

(4, 1, 0) (5, 1, 4)

1047.0

10/13

7131.79

7195.88

0.00

20.22

31.77

ARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) [12] 6-year moving average rainfall series

Louga

(8, 1, 0) (6, 0, 0)

0.065

11/14

115.6

182.96

−0.003

0.16

0.25

Podor

(8, 2, 0) (6, 0, 1)

0.044

10/15

−156.06

−84.21

−0.005

0.13

0.21

Saint Louis

(8, 1, 0) (6, 1, 1)

0.070

11/15

186.16

257.72

0.009

0.16

0.26

min rain

(7, 1, 0) (4, 0, 4)

0.025

12/15

−476.20

−404.35

−0.012

0.093

0.15

max rain

(7, 0, 3) (1, 0, 2)

0.078

9/13

232.24

295.14

−0.002

0.158

0.28