|
| GM(1,1) Model |
| UGM(1,1) Model |
| ||
| α values | Percent Improvement | α values | Percent Improvement | |||
| Year | 0.5 | 0.388403 |
| 0.5 | 0.390081 |
|
| 2004 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 2005 | 3.456 | 1.70 | 51 | 3.37 | 1.66 | 51 |
| 2006 | 6.779 | 9.41 | 39 | 6.86 | 9.42 | 37 |
| 2007 | 4.083 | 0.00 | 100 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 100 |
| I.S. MAPE | 4.773 | 3.70 | 22 | 4.74 | 3.69 | 22 |
| Out-of-Sample Forecasts | ||||||
| 2008 | 4.15 | 1.08 | 74 | 4.06 | 1.06 | 74 |
| 2009 | 6.20 | 0.28 | 95 | 6.11 | 0.24 | 96 |
| 2010 | 16.67 | 8.31 | 50 | 16.57 | 8.38 | 49 |
| 2011 | 3.29 | 5.20 | −58 | 3.20 | 5.12 | −60 |
| 2012 | 5.28 | 4.47 | 15 | 5.19 | 4.37 | 16 |
| O.S. MAPE | 7.12 | 3.87 | 46 | 7.02 | 3.83 | 45 |