No.

Group

Seismic activity period

Western Uzbekistan (West)

Central Uzbekistan (East)

Probability onset of seismic activity with earthquake groups P(t)

1

I

900-1400

Strong Bukhara earthquakes of 942 and 1390 with М ≈ 7.0

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

-

2

1400-1818

(1800-1818)

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Strong Samarkand earthquakes of 1490, 1799, 1817 and 1818 with М = 5.0 - 6.1

-

3

II

1821-1892

Strong Bukhara and Kyzyl-Kum earthquakes of 1821, 1822 and 1892 with М = 6.4 - 7.0

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.941%

4

1897-1923

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Strong Uratyube earthquakes of 1897, 1897 and 1902;

Matchin earthquake of 1923 with М = 5.7 - 6.7

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.855%

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.941%

5

III

1928-1934

Earthquakes of 3 January 1928, 11 July 1928 and 1929 year;

Tamdybulak earthquakes of 1932 and 1934 year with М = 5.2 - 6.2

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 10.526%

6

1940-1966

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Earthquake of 1940, Bakhmal-(1) earthquake of 1955, Koshtepa earthquake of 1965 and Tashkent earthquake of 1966 with М = 5.2 - 5.5

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 9.418%

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 10.526%

7

IV

1968-1984

Kyzyl-Kum earthquakes of 13 and 14 March 1968 y.; Gazly earthquakes of 8 April 1976, 17 May 1976 and 19 March 1984 with М = 5.1 - 7.3

Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 6.122%

8

2013-2017

Seismic quiescence, strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 absence

Marjanbulak earthquake of 2013, Kitab earthquake of 2016 and Bakhmal-(2) earthquake of 2017 with М = 5.1 - 6.2

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 5.748%

Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 6.122%