No. | Group | Seismic activity period | Western Uzbekistan (West) | Central Uzbekistan (East) | Probability onset of seismic activity with earthquake groups P(t) |
1 | I | 900-1400 | Strong Bukhara earthquakes of 942 and 1390 with М ≈ 7.0 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | - |
2 | 1400-1818 (1800-1818) | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Strong Samarkand earthquakes of 1490, 1799, 1817 and 1818 with М = 5.0 - 6.1 | - | |
3 | II | 1821-1892 | Strong Bukhara and Kyzyl-Kum earthquakes of 1821, 1822 and 1892 with М = 6.4 - 7.0 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.941% |
4 | 1897-1923 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Strong Uratyube earthquakes of 1897, 1897 and 1902; Matchin earthquake of 1923 with М = 5.7 - 6.7 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.855% Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 2.941% | |
5 | III | 1928-1934 | Earthquakes of 3 January 1928, 11 July 1928 and 1929 year; Tamdybulak earthquakes of 1932 and 1934 year with М = 5.2 - 6.2 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 10.526% |
6 | 1940-1966 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Earthquake of 1940, Bakhmal-(1) earthquake of 1955, Koshtepa earthquake of 1965 and Tashkent earthquake of 1966 with М = 5.2 - 5.5 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 9.418% Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 10.526% | |
7 | IV | 1968-1984 | Kyzyl-Kum earthquakes of 13 and 14 March 1968 y.; Gazly earthquakes of 8 April 1976, 17 May 1976 and 19 March 1984 with М = 5.1 - 7.3 | Seismic quiescence; absence of strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 6.122% |
8 | 2013-2017 | Seismic quiescence, strong earthquakes with М ≥ 5.0 absence | Marjanbulak earthquake of 2013, Kitab earthquake of 2016 and Bakhmal-(2) earthquake of 2017 with М = 5.1 - 6.2 | Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan: P(t) = 5.748% Probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Central Uzbekistan if there are no earthquakes in Western Uzbekistan: P(t) = 6.122% |