Model

ME

RMSE

MAE

MPE

MAPE

MASE

AICc

DHR with ARIMA(2, 0, 1) error

8447.324

148729.5

92906.71

43052.44

48766.5

0.1582

−18.38

ARIMA(2,1,0)(0, 1, 0) [52]

−4511.181

132336.8

57721.63

−3.0858

8.7082

0.0983

1711.99

Dynamic Regression

16520.74

162314.7

94507.58

0.1878

19.2053

0.1609

3105.5

with ARIMA(2, 1, 3) error

Log transformation

0.00654

0.25964

0.18395

0.26225

1.8929

0.10279

−419.08

ARIMA(1, 1, 5)(0, 0, 1) [52]

Log transformation DHR

0.01285

0.1753

0.13024

0.34485

1.4169

0.0728

15.88