| Term | True value | Estimated Coeff | SE | t-stat | P-Value |
| ar1 | 0.8897 | 0.86 | 0.26 | 3.29 | 0.00 |
| ar2 | −0.4858 | −0.54 | 0.17 | −3.08 | 0.00 |
| ma1 | −0.2279 | −0.20 | 0.29 | −0.67 | 0.50 |
| ma2 | 0.2488 | 0.22 | 0.18 | 1.20 | 0.23 |
| intercept | 5000 | 5196.30 | 451.88 | 11.50 | 0.00 |
| t | 20 | 20.52 | 6.14 | 3.34 | 0.00 |
| DFeb | 0 | 659.54 | 383.31 | 1.72 | 0.09 |
| DMar | 0 | −369.36 | 543.55 | −0.68 | 0.50 |
| DApr | 0 | −533.84 | 619.73 | −0.86 | 0.39 |
| DMay | 0 | −255.27 | 614.44 | −0.42 | 0.68 |
| DJun | 3000 | 3296.66 | 566.10 | 5.82 | 0.00 |
| DJul | 3200 | 3619.11 | 534.03 | 6.78 | 0.00 |
| DAug | 2500 | 3186.39 | 556.57 | 5.73 | 0.00 |
| DSep | 1000 | 1327.86 | 605.77 | 2.19 | 0.03 |
| DOct | 0 | 228.50 | 617.62 | 0.37 | 0.71 |
| DNov | 0 | −247.24 | 552.31 | −0.45 | 0.65 |
| DDec | 0 | −599.44 | 405.99 | −1.48 | 0.14 |
| DE | 4500 | 4125.18 | 319.54 | 12.91 | 0.00 |