Predictability in the designing phase

Proposed corrective measure

Delayed payments from ADF

As of December 2010, invoices n. 17 and 18 were paid very late and n.19 is yet to be paid by the Bank, yet GOK has paid its part.


YES. The procedure to pay a certified invoice can take up to 6 months. Although independent from the project implementing bodies, this event is assessed as predictable since it concerns well-established procedures existing between GOK and AfDB.

The contractor has stopped the works or reduced the rate of activity in several occasions until the payments were processed. To respect the implementation schedule, financial resources have been borrowed from China Bank. AfDB task manager promised that the Bank will do the necessary so that payments will no longer be delayed.

Adverse climatic condition


NO. The level of rainfalls occurred between September 2009 and April 2010 was of an exceptional nature.


Variation of prices

The trend for variation of prices indicates a projected completion amount 326% above the contingency allowed for in the contract.


YES. A study of the current inflating trends of goods and services could have provided more accurate estimates about the magnitude of the financial contingency.

The Bank’s supervision mission advised that the indices for the Variation of Prices need to be reviewed on the basis of the actual indices, as some of them look to be on the higher side.

Post-election violence

After the disputed presidential election of 27 December 2007 the port of Mombasa has been closed due to violence and demonstrations.


NO. The fact could not be predicted.


Illegal strikes of the recruited local manpower


NO. The fact could not be predicted.