PREUN

FOODS

GDP

PRICR

UNEMP

Adjust R-squared

0.9890

0.5159

0.9645

0.8614

0.5572

Granger causality

for PREUN [a]

9.1414

***

for FOODS [b]

7.6263

***

for GDP [c]

3.4814

**

for PRICR [d]

2.3903

*

for UNEMP [e]

6.6239

***

Independent Variables

Regression Coefficients

Intercept

11.5704

***

4.9603

11.2980

5.6767

*

9.2032

Time Trend

−0.0139

**

0.0042

0.0388

−0.0125

**

0.0428

PREUN t−1

0.2820

0.2466

0.0874

−0.4954

**

2.9990

FOODS t−1

−1.3923

***

0.2581

−0.6603

−0.1872

−3.3708

GDP t−1

0.1170

*

-0.0594

0.6258

**

0.1248

*

−1.0146

PRICR t−1

0.1174

0.1288

−0.7065

0.1302

4.0016

*

UNEMP t−1

−0.0421

0.0360

−0.3846

**

0.1034

**

0.2927

Covariance Matrix of Residuals

PREUN

0.00016

−0.00014

0.00029

0.00009

0.00001

FOODS

−0.00014

0.00021

−0.00017

−0.00008

−0.00024

GDP

0.00029

−0.00017

0.00417

0.00017

−0.00593

PRICR

0.00009

−0.00008

0.00017

0.00022

0.00104

UNEMP

0.00001

−0.00024

−0.00593

0.00104

0.02402

Correlation Matrix of Residuals