EXPECTED VALUE OF PRESENT PHASE

(MUS$)

PROBABILTY OF

OCCURRENCE BETWEEN

CONSECUTIVE PHASES

PHASE TIME

EXPENSES

(MUS$)

EXPECTED VALUE PREVIOUS PHASE

(MUS$)

604

289

0

0.70

2

7

{[0.29 × 604+ 0.71 × 0]/1.05²} - 7

(289 × 0.70)/1.10²

167

[167 × 1.05 - 0]/[604 - 0]

0.29

152

VALUE OF

CURRENT PHASE

PROBABILITY OF

NEUTRAL RISK

IN

YEARS

IN

MUS$

VALUE OF PREVIOUS PHASE