EXPECTED VALUE

OF PRESENT PHASE

(MUS$)

PROBABILTY OF

OCCURRENCE BETWEEN

CONSECUTIVE PHASES

PHASE TIME

EXPENSES

(MUS$)

EXPECTED VALUE PREVIOUS PHASE

(MUS$)

700

474

0

0.90

1

15

{[0.58 × 700 + 0.42 × 0]/1.05} - 15

(474 × 0.90)/1.10

387

[387 × 1.05 - 0]/[700 - 0]

0.58

372

VALUE OF

CURRENT PHASE

PROBABILITY OF

NEUTRAL RISK

IN

YEARS

IN

MUS$

VALUE OF PREVIOUS PHASE