Symbol

Meaning

$u_i$

Evaluation index

$h_i$

Evaluation level

$R$

Fuzzy matrix

$A$

Weight vector

$F$

Ultimate weight vector

$D$

Judgement matrix

$m_i$

Factor in normalized F

$C_p$

Cohesion point

$E_p$

Economy point

$P_p$

Politics point

$S_p$

Social point

UE

Ultimate Evaluation

$g_1$

Tipping point 1

$g_2$

Tipping point 2

$\widehat{y_{t+1}}$

The average of $y_t~y_{t-3}$

$y_t$

The time series variable

S

The prediction standard deviation

a%

The contribution rate of GDP

W

The Somalia’s cost of intervention