M

N1(M)

Probability of exceedance (% ) for t years

TR (Years)

Theoretical Return

Period

t = 1

t = 5

t = 10

t = 20

t = 50

t = 100

4.0

39.69

100

100

100

100

100

100

0.0252

1

4.5

14.31

100

100

100

100

100

100

0.0699

1

5.0

5.16

99

100

100

100

100

100

0.1938

1.01

5.5

1.86

84

100

100

100

100

100

0.5373

1.18

6.0

0.67

49

97

100

100

100

100

1.4901

2.05

6.5

0.24

21

70

91

99

100

100

4.1325

4.65

7.0

0.09

8

35

58

83

99

100

11.460

11.97

7.5

0.03

3

15

27

47

79

96

31.78

32.28

7.6

0.03

3

12

23

40

72

92

38.97

39.48