Forms

Representative studies

Causation

Theoretical foundation

Main ideas

Uncertainty gains

Von Neumann & Morgenstern (1944)

probability

expected utility theory

Human beings are absolutely rational and seek to maximize expected utility

Gneezy et al. (2006)

probability

uncertainty effect

Users evaluate the uncertainty stimulus even lower than the worst outcome

Uncertainty losses

Tversky & Kahneman (1979)

probability

certainty effect

In uncertainty gains, users are risk-averse; in uncertainty losses, users are risk-seeking

Uncertainty promotions

Goldsmith & Amir (2010)

probability

optimism

No significant difference in effect between uncertainty and certainty promotions

Laran & Tsiros (2013)

Probability; Information gap

positive emotional experiences

When the user is rational, the uncertainty stimulus inhibits consumption; when the user is emotional, the uncertainty stimulus promotes consumption

Shen et al. (2014)

probability

positive emotional experiences

When users focus on the process, the positive experience generated by the uncertainty incentive motivates them to commit more resources

Hill et al. (2016)

Information gap

curiosity

By creating a sense of mystery, merchants can engage the user’s curiosity and motivate purchase

Mazar et al. (2016)

probability

diminishing sensitivity

In the case of equal expectations, the uncertainty stimulus not only motivates users to buy, but to buy more

Ruan et al. (2018)

Information gap

curiosity

The process of creating and resolving uncertainty leads to an enjoyable experience for the user and a positive brand perception

Uncertainty results

Abuhamdeh et al. (2015)

Information gap

suspense

Users prefer competitive games with uncertain outcomes over perceived competitiveness

Vosgerau et al. (2006)

Information gap

positive emotional experiences

Even if you don’t know the end result beforehand, watching a replay is far less exciting than watching it live

Norton et al. (2007)

Information gap

ambiguity

Ambiguity in relationships creates more likeable emotions

Whitchurch et al. (2011)

Information gap

positive emotional experiences

Women will find men who are unclear about their attitudes more attractive

Uncertainty rewards

Shen et al. (2018)

probability

positive emotional experiences

Resolving uncertainty as a mental reward will motivate repetitive user behavior