Forecast

RMSE

MAE

MAPE

SMAPE

Theil U₁

Bulgaria

Holt-Winters

0.676469

0.676469

7.958460

7.653894

0.038269

ARIMA

0.001111

0.001111

0.013067

0.013068

6.53E−05

Simple mean

0.337679

0.337679

3.972696

3.895322

0.019477

Simple Median

0.337679

0.337679

3.972696

3.895322

0.019477

Least-squares

0.340109

0.340109

4.001279

3.922798

0.019614

Mean squares error

0.393701

0.393701

4.631778

4.526939

0.022635

MSE ranks

0.450609

0.450609

5.301284

5.164394

0.025822

Croatia

Holt-Winters

1.729278

1.729278

14.41065

13.44211

0.067211

ARIMA

0.017380

0.017380

0.144831

0.144726

0.000724

Simple mean

0.873329

0.873329

7.277742

7.022213

0.035111

Simple Median

0.873329

0.873329

7.277742

7.022213

0.035111

Least-squares

0.197213

0.197213

1.643445

1.630050

0.008150

Mean squares error

1.605460

1.605460

13.37883

12.53998

0.062700

MSE ranks

1.158646

1.158646

9.655379

9.210715

0.046054

Greece

Holt-Winters

2.076546

2.076546

13.48407

12.63239

0.063162

ARIMA

1.984547

1.984547

12.88667

12.10660

0.060533

Simple mean

2.030547

2.030547

13.18537

12.36986

0.061849

Simple Median

2.030547

2.030547

13.18537

12.36986

0.061849

Least-squares

1.999030

1.999030

12.98072

12.18957

0.060948

Mean squares error

2.066903

2.066903

13.42145

12.57741

0.062887

MSE ranks

2.045880

2.045880

13.28493

12.45745

0.062287

Romania

Holt-Winters

0.883371

0.883371

7.958298

7.653744

0.038269

ARIMA

0.891687

0.891687

8.033214

7.723011

0.038625

Simple mean

0.887529

0.887529

7.995756

7.688384

0.038442

Simple Median

0.887529

0.887529

7.995756

7.688384

0.038442

Least-squares

0.889367

0.889367

8.012311

7.703690

0.038518

Mean squares error

0.885227

0.885227

7.975022

7.669211

0.038346

MSE ranks

0.886143

0.886143

7.983270

7.676839

0.038384

Slovenia

Holt-Winters

1.298899

1.298899

5.931044

5.760224

0.028801

ARIMA

0.097912

0.097912

0.447087

0.448088

0.002240

Simple mean

0.600493

0.600493

2.741979

2.704895

0.031524

Simple Median

0.600493

0.600493

2.741979

2.704895

0.031524

Least-squares

0.190806

0.190806

0.871261

0.867482

0.004337

Mean squares error

0.624859

0.624859

2.853237

2.813105

0.014066

MSE ranks

0.833295

0.833295

3.805001

3.733962

0.018670