Variable

Benchmark model (1)

GDP (2)

EPU (3)

EPUt−1 (4)

Prosperous period

Recession

EPU (5)

EPUt−1 (6)

EPU (7)

EPUt−1 (8)

EPU

0.0068***

0.0238***

−0.0046***

EPUt−1

0.0117***

0.0464***

0.0271***

Ecocy

−0.0039***

−0.0048***

−0.0048***

−0.0007

0.0011*

−0.0020

0.0078***

SIZE

−0.0086***

−0.0063***

−0.0057***

−0.0045***

−0.0038***

−0.0060***

−0.0086***

−0.0061***

MBI

0.0073***

0.0066***

0.0060***

0.0052***

0.0081***

0.0099***

0.0062***

0.0045***

LEV

−0.0228***

−0.0238***

−0.0231***

−0.0219***

−0.0032

−0.0065

0.0143***

0.0133*

NWC

0.3767***

0.3812***

0.3807***

0.3690***

0.4006***

0.3852***

0.3074***

0.3020***

SD

0.0557***

0.0509***

0.0510***

0.0462***

0.0453***

0.0455***

0.0502***

0.0460***

Ind

Control

Control

Control

Control

Control

Control

Control

Control

_con

0.1404***

0.0678***

0.0502***

0.0366***

0.0032

−0.0262

0.1636***

0.0365

N

79915

79915

79915

79915

22432

22220

23814

23500

R-square

0.4535

0.4565

0.4575

0.4437

0.4752

0.4825

0.3289

0.3279

F (prob.)

3317.1

3197.7

3062.7

2800.4

1195.8

1219.5

531.56

522.16