Dependent variable: LAFAY_INDEX | ||||
Selected model: ARDL (2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3) | ||||
Date: 01/19/18 Time: 20:41 | ||||
Sample: 1970 2016 | ||||
Included observations: 42 | ||||
Cointegrating form | ||||
Variable | Coefficient | Std. error | t-Statistic | Prob. |
D (LAFAY_INDEX (−1)) | 1.405002 | 0.346213 | 4.058204 | 0.0012 |
D (LOG_DVPT_ASS) | 2.501586 | 2.203217 | 1.135424 | 0.2753 |
D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−1)) | −0.999750 | 2.142857 | −0.466550 | 0.6480 |
D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−2)) | 6.852759 | 1.707993 | 4.012169 | 0.0013 |
D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−3)) | 5.377336 | 1.855227 | 2.898479 | 0.0117 |
D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW) | −0.774124 | 0.498158 | −1.553973 | 0.1425 |
D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−1)) | −0.214468 | 0.374172 | −0.573180 | 0.5756 |
D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−2)) | 0.676900 | 0.442465 | 1.529837 | 0.1483 |
D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−3)) | 0.511473 | 0.223753 | 2.285886 | 0.0384 |
D (LOG_GDP_CAP) | 5.093924 | 6.059788 | 0.840611 | 0.4147 |
D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−1)) | −11.463544 | 6.726872 | −1.704142 | 0.1104 |
D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−2)) | −3.291511 | 6.644939 | −0.495341 | 0.6280 |
D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−3)) | 11.556599 | 5.354352 | 2.158356 | 0.0488 |
D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE) | −13.229005 | 3.225018 | −4.101994 | 0.0011 |
D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−1)) | 10.346097 | 3.510971 | 2.946791 | 0.0106 |
D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−2)) | −3.434072 | 2.812778 | −1.220883 | 0.2423 |
D (TRADE_OPEN) | −0.063797 | 0.067714 | −0.942159 | 0.3621 |
D (TRADE_OPEN (−1)) | −0.189687 | 0.060370 | −3.142065 | 0.0072 |
D (TRADE_OPEN (−2)) | −0.072023 | 0.069839 | −1.031263 | 0.3199 |
@DURING (“1994”) | 0.985069 | 7.456168 | 0.132115 | 0.8968 |
D (@TREND ()) | 1.381514 | 0.316357 | 4.366943 | 0.0006 |
CointEq (−1) | −3.228565 | 0.551287 | −5.856411 | 0.0000 |
Cointeq = LAFAY_INDEX − (−2.2016 * LOG_DVPT_ASS −0.3812 * LOG_FDI_INFLOW + 2.6225 * LOG_GDP_CAP − 9.2230 * LOG_MILK_CATTLE + 0.0729 * TRADE_OPEN + 0.3051 * @DURING (“1994”) + 126.6043 + 0.4279 * @TREND) |