Dependent variable: LAFAY_INDEX

Selected model: ARDL (2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3)

Date: 01/19/18 Time: 20:41

Sample: 1970 2016

Included observations: 42

Cointegrating form

Variable

Coefficient

Std. error

t-Statistic

Prob.

D (LAFAY_INDEX (−1))

1.405002

0.346213

4.058204

0.0012

D (LOG_DVPT_ASS)

2.501586

2.203217

1.135424

0.2753

D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−1))

−0.999750

2.142857

−0.466550

0.6480

D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−2))

6.852759

1.707993

4.012169

0.0013

D (LOG_DVPT_ASS (−3))

5.377336

1.855227

2.898479

0.0117

D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW)

−0.774124

0.498158

−1.553973

0.1425

D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−1))

−0.214468

0.374172

−0.573180

0.5756

D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−2))

0.676900

0.442465

1.529837

0.1483

D (LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−3))

0.511473

0.223753

2.285886

0.0384

D (LOG_GDP_CAP)

5.093924

6.059788

0.840611

0.4147

D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−1))

−11.463544

6.726872

−1.704142

0.1104

D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−2))

−3.291511

6.644939

−0.495341

0.6280

D (LOG_GDP_CAP (−3))

11.556599

5.354352

2.158356

0.0488

D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE)

−13.229005

3.225018

−4.101994

0.0011

D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−1))

10.346097

3.510971

2.946791

0.0106

D (LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−2))

−3.434072

2.812778

−1.220883

0.2423

D (TRADE_OPEN)

−0.063797

0.067714

−0.942159

0.3621

D (TRADE_OPEN (−1))

−0.189687

0.060370

−3.142065

0.0072

D (TRADE_OPEN (−2))

−0.072023

0.069839

−1.031263

0.3199

@DURING (“1994”)

0.985069

7.456168

0.132115

0.8968

D (@TREND ())

1.381514

0.316357

4.366943

0.0006

CointEq (−1)

−3.228565

0.551287

−5.856411

0.0000

Cointeq = LAFAY_INDEX − (−2.2016 * LOG_DVPT_ASS −0.3812 * LOG_FDI_INFLOW + 2.6225 * LOG_GDP_CAP − 9.2230 * LOG_MILK_CATTLE + 0.0729 * TRADE_OPEN + 0.3051 * @DURING (“1994”) + 126.6043 + 0.4279 * @TREND)