Dependent Variable: LAFAY_INDEX

Method: ARDL

Date: 01/19/18 Time: 20:40

Sample (adjusted): 1974 2015

Included observations: 42 after adjustments

Maximum dependent lags: 4 (Automatic selection)

Model selection method: Akaike info criterion (AIC)

Dynamic regressors (4 lags, automatic): LOG_DVPT_ASS

LOG_FDI_INFLOW LOG_GDP_CAP LOG_MILK_CATTLE

TRADE_OPEN

Fixed regressors: @DURING (“1994”) C @TREND

Number of models evalulated: 12500

Selected Model: ARDL(2, 4, 4, 4, 3, 3)

Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.*

LAFAY_INDEX (−1)

−0.823563

0.247150

−3.332241

0.0049

LAFAY_INDEX (−2)

−1.405002

0.346213

−4.058204

0.0012

LOG_DVPT_ASS

2.501586

2.203217

1.135424

0.2753

LOG_DVPT_ASS (−1)

1.620644

2.171204

0.746426

0.4678

LOG_DVPT_ASS (−2)

0.999750

2.142857

0.466550

0.6480

LOG_DVPT_ASS (−3)

−6.852759

1.707993

−4.012169

0.0013

LOG_DVPT_ASS (−4)

−5.377336

1.855227

−2.898479

0.0117

LOG_FDI_INFLOW

−0.774124

0.498158

−1.553973

0.1425

LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−1)

0.517173

0.394201

1.311954

0.2106

LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−2)

0.214468

0.374172

0.573180

0.5756

LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−3)

−0.676900

0.442465

−1.529837

0.1483

LOG_FDI_INFLOW (−4)

−0.511473

0.223753

−2.285886

0.0384

LOG_GDP_CAP

5.093924

6.059788

0.840611

0.4147

LOG_GDP_CAP (−1)

0.174442

5.583309

0.031244

0.9755

LOG_GDP_CAP (−2)

11.46354

6.726872

1.704142

0.1104

LOG_GDP_CAP (−3)

3.291511

6.644939

0.495341

0.6280

LOG_GDP_CAP (−4)

−11.55660

5.354352

−2.158356

0.0488

LOG_MILK_CATTLE

−13.22901

3.225018

−4.101994

0.0011

LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−1)

−9.635914

3.545966

−2.717430

0.0167

LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−2)

−10.34610

3.510971

−2.946791

0.0106

LOG_MILK_CATTLE (−3)

3.434072

2.812778

1.220883

0.2423

TRADE_OPEN

−0.063797

0.067714

−0.942159

0.3621

TRADE_OPEN (−1)

0.037348

0.050024

0.746607

0.4677

TRADE_OPEN (−2)

0.189687

0.060370

3.142065

0.0072

TRADE_OPEN (−3)

0.072023

0.069839

1.031263

0.3199

@DURING (“1994”)

0.985069

7.456168

0.132115

0.8968