Forecast Horizon (Quarters)

Fraction of Variance Explained by Shocks to:

1) FedR

2) Ygap

3) SAp

4) R

5) ZARx

1) FedR

10^th Quarter

69.25

19.63

2.33

8.22

0.57

20^th Quarter

67.90

20.53

2.41

8.36

0.79

2) Ygap

10^th Quarter

9.39

75.93

5.89

1.67

7.13

20^th Quarter

10.19

74.89

5.79

1.98

7.14

3) SAp

10^th Quarter

16.79

20.91

49.69

2.67

9.94

20^th Quarter

16.86

20.55

49.17

3.36

10.06

4) R

10^th Quarter

6.20

27.96

6.04

58.09

1.71

20^th Quarter

6.64

28.67

6.07

56.55

2.07

5) ZARx

10^th Quarter

14.19

3.87

5.02

4.40

72.51

20^th Quarter

14.26

4.27

5.09

4.61

71.77