Climate-Driven Phenomena

Biophysical/Risk Effects (Evidence from previous Events)

Data Source/s

Critical Impact Barangay/Sector

Increase in Temperature

· Projected 2˚C - 3˚C change in temperature in the Bicol Region with 2× CO₂ Scenario (Canadian Climate Change Model)

· Recorded episodes of ENSO (El Nino and La Nina) that affected the Province of Albay

· Philippine Initial National Communication on Climate Change (PINCCC)

· Agriculture,

· Livelihoods

· Water sector

· - Health

Sea Level Rise

· Inundation of land and changes in tides in the coastal barangays of Malidong (Pioduran), Catburawan (Ligao City), Nagas, Tapel and Maramba (Oas), Pantao (Libon), and Villahermosa (Rapu-Rapu).

· Observed a slight SLR on the West Coast and on the Pacific side in Rapu-Rapu.

· Barangay visual accounts and observations

· PSML

· PINCC (Coast and Geodetic Survey Department or CGSD of NAMRIA in Legaspi, Albay)

· Agriculture,

· Livelihoods

· Water sector

· Health

· Settlements, Land

· Use

Waves and Storm Surges

· Passing of more typhoons (exceeding the area average of 3 typhoons within 2 years)

· More rain volume from Typhoons surpassing the average (2009)

· Stronger winds (between 150 to 260 km/hr.)

· Increasing incidence of evacuation of household members from their residence along coastal areas especially those living very near the shorelines

· Occurrence of Storm Surge

· PAGASA data and local observations

· Case of Tropical Depression Dante (2009)

· Super Typhoons Sisang (1987) and Milenyo and Reming in 2006

· Provincial Disaster Profile from Albay-PDCC

· 1970 and 1983 as noted in the official records from NRDB-PAGASA

· Housing

· Livelihood/

· Economy

· Water drains, settlements

· All sectors

· Schools,

· Women, and Children

· Settlements, Livelihoods, basic infrastructure

· Lifelines (water, power, electricity communications)

Extreme Rainfall and Riverine Floods

· Flashflood events

· Riverbank erosion

· Areas identified as land slide and erosion prone

· Projected 1.0 - 1.5 change in rainfall ratio in the Bicol Region with 2× CO₂ Scenario (Canadian Climate Change Model)

· PDCC data

· PDCC data

· - Local Geo-hazard map (MGB-DENR)

· Agriculture,

· Livelihoods

· Health

· Land Use