Variables

Coefficient

$\left|Z\right|$

Budget Deficit financing (Model 1)

State 1

−6.989***

−27.240

State 2

−1.292***

−5.170

Fiscal Deficit financing (Model 2)

State 1

−522,090.900***

−34.680

State 2

−3589.300

−1.240

Probability of Transition

Model 1

Model 2

State of Probabilities

Probabilities

State of Probabilities

Probabilities

$P_{11}$

0.976

$P_{11}$

0.794

$P_{12}$

0.024

$P_{12}$

0.205

$P_{21}$

0.023

$P_{21}$

0.007

$P_{22}$

0.977

$P_{22}$

0.993

Durations of Transition

Model 1

Model 2

State 1

42.3

4.9

State 2

44.3

139.7