| Variable | Number with data | OR (95% CI) | p-value | Taken forward to next stage | |
| Independent associations, each risk factor included separately | |||||
| Age | 6378 | 1.04 (1.03 to 1.04) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Sex | 6378 | 1.12 (0.99 to 1.26) | 0.05 | ✗ | |
| BMI | 6157 | 1.08 (1.07 to 1.10) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Ethnicity | 6175 | 1.67 (1.45 to 1.91) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Family history | 6378 | 1.29 (1.14 to 1.46) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Smoking status | 6141 | 0.71 (0.58 to 0.86) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Antihypertensives | 6378 | 1.99 (1.75 to 2.27) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Statins | 6378 | 1.76 (1.49 to 2.09) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Steroids | 6378 | 1.16 (0.89 to 1.50) | 0.28 | ||
| History of CVD | 6378 | 1.28 (1.08 to 1.52) | 0.004 | ✗ | |
| Deprivation | 6125 | 1.01 (1.00 to 1.01) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| All significant risk factors from phase one included in one model | |||||
| Age | 5867 | 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Sex | 5867 | 1.21 (1.05 to 1.39) | 0.01 | ✗ | |
| BMI | 5867 | 1.08 (1.07 to 1.10) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Ethnicity | 5867 | 2.01 (1.70 to 2.38) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Family history | 5867 | 1.66 (1.44 to 1.91) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Smoking status | 5867 | 0.94 (0.76 to 1.16) | 0.55 | ||
| Antihypertensives | 5867 | 1.67 (1.42 to 1.96) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Statins | 5867 | 1.32 (1.06 to 1.63) | 0.01 | ✗ | |
| History of CVD | 5867 | 0.84 (0.68 to 1.03) | 0.1 | ||
| Deprivation | 5867 | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.01) | 0.08 | ||
| All significant risk factors from phase two included in one model | |||||
| Age | 6143 | 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Sex | 6143 | 1.19 (1.04 to 1.36) | 0.01 | ✗ | |
| BMI | 6143 | 1.09 (1.07 to 1.10) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Ethnicity | 6143 | 2.13 (1.82 to 2.48) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Family history | 6143 | 1.61 (1.40 to 1.85) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Antihypertensives | 6143 | 1.65 (1.41 to 1.93) | <0.0001 | ✗ | |
| Statins | 6143 | 1.19 (0.98 to 1.45) | 0.08 | ||
| Score now includes age, sex, BMI, ethnicity, family history and antihypertensives (next stage: adding the excluded variables one by one to see if they are now important when adjusted for other factors in the model) | |||||
| Steroids | 6143 | 1.08 (0.82 to 1.43) | 0.57 | ||
| Smoking status | 6099 | 0.93 (0.76 to 1.15) | 0.52 | ||
| History of CVD | 6143 | 0.91 (0.75 to 1.11) | 0.36 | ||
| Deprivation | 5911 | 1.00 (1.00 to 1.00) | 0.09 | ||
| OR, odds ratio. | |||||