30 Observations used for estimation from 1989 to 2020

Regressor

Coefficient

Standard Error

T-Ratio

[Prob.]

CG(−1)

1.60190

0.28159

5.68860

[0.000]***

CG(−2)

−1.14360

0.34468

−3.31790

[0.007]***

LL

244.66990

75.49570

3.24080

[0.008]***

LL(−1)

−42.76770

37.31050

−1.14380

[0.277]

IR

117.81270

87.26670

1.35000

[0.204]

IR(−1)

290.57970

70.13960

4.14290

[0.002]***

COM

142.59580

68.94530

2.06820

[0.063]*

COM(−1)

96.70990

69.83840

1.38480

[0.194]

EF

−297.99510

84.66690

−3.51960

[0.005]***

EF(−1)

33.19740

90.76470

0.36575

[0.721]

EF(−2)

−289.81060

103.69620

−2.79480

[0.017]**

PRIV

−301.21050

127.54170

−2.36170

[0.038]**

PRIV(−1)

−354.02510

134.14640

−2.63910

[0.023]**

PRIV(−2)

−410.08980

135.59030

−3.02450

[0.012]**

COMP

373.79800

143.10000

2.61210

[0.024]**

COMP(−1)

242.69650

133.40820

1.81920

[0.096]*

COMP(−2)

325.33090

84.05260

3.87060

[0.003]***

CONSTANT

170.95250

82.07060

2.08300

[0.061]*

R-Squared

0.99305

R-Bar-Squared

0.9823

S.E of Regression

62.7752

F-stat. F(17, 11)

92.3968 [0.000]

Mean of Dep. Var.

899.579

S.D of Dep.Var.

471.821

RSS

433348

Equat LL

−147.14

AIC

−165.1401

SBC

−177.45

DW-statistic

2.2869

F-statistic

95% LB

95% UB

90% LB

90% UB

4.6564

3.0144

4.5077

2.4978

3.7886

W-statistic

95% LB

95% UB

90% LB

90% UB

32.5949

21.0801

31.5538

17.4845

26.5202

Diagnostic Tests

Serial Correlation, CHSQ(1) = 1.5857 [0.208]: Lagrange multiplier test of residual serial correlation

Functional Form, CHSQ(1) = 0.027928 [0.867]: Ramsey’s RESET test using the square of the fitted values

Normality, CHSQ(2) = 2.3570 [0.308] Not applicable: Based on a test of skewness and kurtosis of residuals

Heteroscedasticity, CHSQ(1) = 0.24858 [0.618]: Based on the Regression of Squared Residuals on Squared Fitted Values