Impulse variable

Trade balance

Trade

balance

Money supply (M2)

Real

exchange rate

Income

Inflation

Investment

Household

consumption

expenditure

Response variable and forecast

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0.84

0.05

0.04

0.01

0.008

0.0003

0.02

3

0.81

0.05

0.04

0.03

0.009

0.006

0.03

4

0.79

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.009

0.007

0.03

5

0.78

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.009

0.008

0.03

6

0.77

0.05

0.06

0.04

0.009

0.008

0.03

7

0.76

0.05

0.07

0.04

0.01

0.009

0.03

8

0.76

0.05

0.07

0.04

0.01

0.008

0.03

9

0.76

0.05

0.08

0.04

0.01

0.008

0.03

10

0.75

0.05

0.08

0.04

0.01

0.008

0.03

FEVD standard errors and confidence intervals based on 200 Monte Carlo simulations