Impulse variable

Current

account

balance

Current

account

balance

Money

supply (M2)

real

exchange

rate

Income

Inflation

Investment

Household consumption expenditure

Response variable and forecast

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0.87

0.03

0.05

0.005

0.0007

0.03

0.0002

3

0.74

0.04

0.16

0.005

0.003

0.03

0.0004

4

0.63

0.04

0.27

0.004

0.004

0.03

0.0004

5

0.56

0.03

0.35

0.003

0.005

0.03

0.0004

6

0.51

0.03

0.41

0.003

0.005

0.02

0.0003

7

0.47

0.03

0.45

0.003

0.005

0.02

0.0003

8

0.44

0.03

0.48

0.003

0.005

0.02

0.0003

9

0.42

0.02

0.51

0.003

0.005

0.02

0.0003

10

0.40

0.02

0.53

0.003

0.006

0.02

0.0003

FEVD standard errors and confidence intervals based on 200 Monte Carlo simulations