forecast initial field | T639 | ECMWF | Japan |
Case 1: Blizzard in Northeast China on October 21-23, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, shear and cold vortex in 850 hPa | 72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent) | 72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent) | 72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent) |
Case 2: Heavy rain in Jiangnan on October 24-26, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, shear in 850 hPa, weak cold air | 144 - 192 h Forecast (some deviation) | 144 - 192 h Forecast (consistent) | 144 - 192 h Forecast (consistent) |
Case 3: Rainstorm in South China on October 27-30, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, Typhoon inverted trough, cold air | large deviation in 192 - 240 h typhoon forecast | some deviation in 192 - 240 h typhoon forecast | some deviation in 192 h typhoon forecast |