forecast

initial field

T639

ECMWF

Japan

Case 1: Blizzard in Northeast China on October 21-23, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, shear and cold vortex in 850 hPa

72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent)

72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent)

72 - 96 h Forecast (consistent)

Case 2: Heavy rain in Jiangnan on October 24-26, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, shear in 850 hPa, weak cold air

144 - 192 h Forecast (some deviation)

144 - 192 h Forecast (consistent)

144 - 192 h Forecast (consistent)

Case 3: Rainstorm in South China on October 27-30, circulation system: Trough in 500 hPa, Typhoon inverted trough, cold air

large deviation in 192 - 240 h typhoon forecast

some deviation in 192 - 240 h typhoon forecast

some deviation in 192 h typhoon forecast