T = 16 |
| COLLINEARITY (ρ) | |||||||
AUTOCO LEVELS (d) | Models | 0.85 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 0.99 | ||||
| RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE | |
−0.99 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 7.099558 5.354367 5.141425 4.832524 4.815467 | 5.488038 4.368050 4.248849 4.074875 4.053705 | 6.521014 5.091192 4.938309 4.633212 4.557603 | 4.816776 3.915295 3.860671 3.769205 3.727673 | 6.585069 5.069587 4.920665 4.660507 4.557807 | 4.887567 3.872711 3.812141 3.713638 3.652285 | 7.684958 5.569227 5.406792 5.024710 4.973870 | 6.278895 4.708213 4.618110 4.285318 4.240757 |
−0.95 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 5.544257 4.324869 4.220449 4.003888 4.010320 | 4.186718 3.429009 3.381017 3.300624 3.316631 | 5.112994 4.172032 4.055720 3.926039 3.893640 | 3.697093 3.185216 3.134407 3.172842 3.163165 | 5.975801 4.171876 4.083852 3.961607 3.883255 | 4.158646 3.196001 3.160311 3.147595 3.098337 | 5.658868 4.494514 4.391751 4.179838 4.133488 | 4.539939 3.697396 3.641695 3.447062 3.414553 |
−0.9 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 4.980604 3.687533 3.639701 3.603180 3.588368 | 3.463746 2.859690 2.844916 2.919753 2.919223 | 4.287961 3.606291 3.560013 3.523595 3.497328 | 3.065169 2.734738 2.719446 2.814447 2.805292 | 4.268945 3.655296 3.617843 3.566352 3.535946 | 3.127354 2.798103 2.787296 2.799926 2.787899 | 4.649767 3.916813 3.847798 3.701483 3.659214 | 3.627321 3.150820 3.106193 2.958137 2.921385 |
−0.85 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 3.931436 3.361689 3.316281 3.376193 3.337128 | 2.836340 2.566424 2.550419 2.710927 2.681466 | 3.752833 3.327498 3.298469 3.351763 3.320024 | 2.672187 2.511070 2.503870 2.651112 2.634910 | 3.914835 3.365351 3.347638 3.374493 3.340993 | 2.807772 2.561936 2.561983 2.632058 2.604237 | 4.153217 3.590020 3.545986 3.484812 3.455871 | 3.173080 2.833207 2.805145 2.733155 2.708515 |
−0.8 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 3.561568 3.141871 3.130818 3.235323 3.217223 | 2.513821 2.376008 2.385163 2.576755 2.563044 | 3.499674 3.122570 3.122629 3.239783 3.199575 | 2.428740 2.341436 2.353909 2.548926 2.517306 | 3.460913 3.185755 3.171209 3.269472 3.239034 | 2.464968 2.407006 2.407891 2.537393 2.508146 | 3.715763 3.377952 3.342798 3.326908 3.316027 | 2.771846 2.621657 2.599312 2.569621 2.558102 |
0.8 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 5.935846 3.092480 3.104172 3.333406 3.326683 | 3.875375 2.406703 2.425831 2.708006 2.691638 | 4.596944 3.168463 3.174154 3.390600 3.378089 | 3.336584 2.470473 2.488708 2.743593 2.725091 | 6.168058 3.278105 3.284224 3.404835 3.406680 | 4.172277 2.556307 2.572859 2.724011 2.721354 | 4.848704 3.403328 3.432744 3.430755 3.415459 | 3.574810 2.646337 2.683555 2.692097 2.683138 |
0.85 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 5.906603 3.187109 3.212084 3.401360 3.384663 | 4.141382 2.486379 2.518349 2.762893 2.743115 | 6.431106 3.268792 3.295495 3.443323 3.424266 | 4.395475 2.560739 2.592801 2.790721 2.770110 | 5.362360 3.373927 3.388809 3.502990 3.521424 | 3.956971 2.649528 2.675846 2.817918 2.828056 | 9.670937 3.541941 3.509886 3.545501 3.531460 | 6.168488 2.779677 2.752773 2.809354 2.789153 |
0.9 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 5.865847 3.297557 3.314972 3.498159 3.474059 | 4.201976 2.583295 2.615505 2.843494 2.817931 | 61.66698 3.370430 3.393415 3.535499 3.524660 | 26.38680 2.651448 2.686720 2.870239 2.859486 | 6.365724 3.493143 3.522315 3.590405 3.581698 | 4.768412 2.755960 2.795523 2.896881 2.885804 | 7.408496 3.657923 3.667833 3.658135 3.646798 | 5.488225 2.887093 2.904777 2.920263 2.905549 |
0.95 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 7.603355 3.411263 3.418956 3.595808 3.574028 | 5.347943 2.676685 2.692997 2.921298 2.899565 | 7.375481 3.512366 3.504870 3.636408 3.663024 | 5.345211 2.778681 2.776759 2.951149 2.976121 | 8.208019 3.625132 3.627279 3.712393 3.696802 | 5.917109 2.871509 2.887530 3.001418 2.987986 | 7.718048 3.809260 3.819555 3.771147 3.790026 | 5.867731 3.022592 3.045406 3.027770 3.039191 |
0.99 | VAR(2) BVAR1 BVAR2 BVAR3 BVAR4 | 8.702855 3.539944 3.582537 3.682735 3.644202 | 5.976177 2.791661 2.844710 2.992844 2.955269 | 13.251931 3.658224 3.670373 3.762536 3.729751 | 8.125016 2.903635 2.931474 3.059895 3.032743 | 9.090280 3.739543 3.763571 3.793360 3.817374 | 6.638492 2.972059 3.009277 3.080622 3.094050 | 9.785179 3.923395 3.908205 3.888633 3.902983 | 7.055832 3.126881 3.124968 3.138854 3.149683 |