Climate change scenario

Description

A1F1

The emergence of new and more efficient technologies occurs very rapidly when the economy is rapidly growing and the global population peaks by mid-century and falls afterwards. Regional convergence, capacity building, and increased cultural and social interaction are major underlying themes. This is accompanied by a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income which is distinguished by being fossil intensive.

A2

The world is very heterogeneous. Self-reliance and the preservation of local identities are the underlying themes. There is a slow convergence of fertility patterns across regions, leading to a continuous increase in the global population. Compared to other storylines, economic development and technological change are largely regionally oriented.

B1

Similarly, to the storyline in A1, convergent societies have the same global population peaking at mid-century and declining thereafter, but with rapid changes in economic structures, with a shift toward a service and information economy, with a reduction in material intensity and a rise in green technologies. There is a focus on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but no additional climate initiatives are being undertaken.

B2

A world based on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a world with a continuously increasing global population at a rate lower than A2. This is accompanied by intermediate levels of economic development and less rapid and more diverse technological change than in the B1 and A1 storylines. While the scenario is also oriented toward environmental protection and social equity, it focuses on local and regional levels.