Method 1

Method 2

Method 3a

Variables

AUC OOB*

Variables

AUC OOB*

Variables

AUC OOB** (LR part)

AUC OOB** (LDA part)

AUC OOB*** (all)

1

NT-proBNP

0.7246

NT-proBNP

0.7246

NT-proBNP

0.7246

0.7246

0.7246

2

NYHA ≥ III

0.7482

NYHA ≥ III

0.7482

NYHA ≥ III

0.7482

0.7523

0.7523

3

Periph. edema ≥ “above”

0.7547

Heart rate

0.7529

NYHA ≥ II

0.7550

0.7579

0.7579

4

Glycemia

0.7620

Systolic BP

0.7591

Glycemia

0.7621

0.7642

0.7642

5

Systolic BP

0.7671

NYHA ≥ II

0.7647

Periph. edema ≥ “above”

0.7687

0.7688

0.7694

6

Beta-blockers

0.7730

Beta-blockers

0.7696

Beta-blockers

0.7731

0.7714

0.7736

7

NYHA ≥ II

0.7787

Glycemia

0.7764

Systolic BP

0.7791

0.7761

0.7792

8

Cholesterol HDL

0.7829

Periph. edema ≥ “above”

0.7810

Cholesterol HDL

0.7835

0.7796

0.7835

9

Mean BP

0.7827

Cholesterol HDL

0.7852

Paroxystic AF

0.7864

0.7831

0.7867

10

Diastolic BP

0.7840

Uricemia

0.7885

Uricemia

0.7902

0.7866

0.7904

11

Heart rate

0.7861

Bilirubin

0.7912

Bilirubin

0.7925

0.7876

0.7926

12

Uricemia

0.7897

Diuretics

0.7913

Implantable defibrillator

0.7948

0.7908

0.7950

13

Third heart sound

0.7922

Previous AMI

0.7932

Neoplasia

0.7966

0.7924

0.7968

14

Bilirubin

0.7950

Paroxystic AF

0.7953

Third heart sound

0.7984

0.7947

0.7985

15

Previous AMI

0.7967

Third heart sound

0.7982

Heart rate

0.8001

0.7963

0.8002

16

Paroxystic AF

0.7988

LVEF

0.7990

Previous AMI

0.8020

0.7977

0.8020

17

Implantable defibrillator

0.8010

Triglycerides

0.8006

Triglycerides

0.8038

0.7993

0.8038

18

Neoplasia

0.8027

Neoplasia

0.8028

LVEF

0.8052

0.8010

0.8052

19

LVEF

0.8045

Ascitis

0.8038

Hypertension

0.8067

0.8021

0.8067

20

Triglycerides

0.8064

Implantable defibrillator

0.8060

Mitral insufficiency

0.8080

0.8040

0.8080

21

Diuretics

0.8070

Hemoglobin

0.8058

Smoker or ex-smoker

0.8091

0.8053

0.8091

22

Ascitis

0.8085

ePVS

0.8061

Ascitis

0.8104

0.8060

0.8104

23

Mid-apical pulmonary rales

0.8091

Hematocrit

0.8070

Periph. edema ≥ “ankles”

0.8116

0.8069

0.8116

24

Smoker or ex-smoker

0.8099

Smoker or ex-smoker

0.8080

NYHA ≥ IV

0.8119

0.8071

0.8119

25

Mitral insufficiency

0.8108

Mitral insufficiency

0.8086

BMI

0.8130

0.8084

0.8130

26

Hypertension

0.8121

BMI

0.8103

Mid-apical pulmonary rales

0.8137

0.8084

0.8137

27

BMI

0.8131

Hypertension

0.8119

28

Periph. edema ≥ “ankles”

0.8144

Previous hosp. for worsening HF

0.8119

29

Periph. edema ≥ “knee”

0.8151

Mid-apical pulmonary rales

0.8127

30

CABG

0.8157

Diabetes

0.8127

31

Calcium antagonists

0.8161

CABG

0.8133

32

Previous hosp. for worsening HF

0.8166

Periph. edema ≥ “knee”

0.8136

33

Bundle branch block

0.8170

Diastolic BP

0.8137

34

NYHA ≥ IV

0.8176

NYHA ≥ IV

0.8145

35

Serum sodium

0.8178

Bundle branch block

0.8147

36

Diabetes

0.8180

Calcium antagonists

0.8153

37

COPD

0.8181

Total cholesterol

0.8149

38

Previous stroke

0.8184

Mean BP

0.8151

39

Years of school education

0.8187

COPD

0.8150

40

Age

0.8186

Periph. edema ≥ “ankles”

0.8163

41

Weight

0.8186

Atrial fibrillation

0.8166

42

Serum creatinine

0.8185

Cause of HF = “not known”

0.8165

43

eGFR

0.8186

Previous stroke

0.8167

44

Total cholesterol

0.8184

Aortic stenosis

0.8167

45

Aortic stenosis

0.8185

Age

0.8164

46

Cause of HF = “not known”

0.8186

Angina pectoris

0.8164

47

Atrial fibrillation

0.8187

Years of school education

0.8166

48

Pulmonary rales

0.8186

Waiting for cardiac transplantation

0.8168

49

Basal pulmonary rales

0.8188

Serum sodium

0.8170

50

Transient ischemic attack

0.8187

Definitive pace maker

0.8171

51

Basal pulmonary rales

0.8168

52

Weight

0.8169

53

eGFR

0.8169

54

Transient ischemic attack

0.8170

55

Hepatomegaly

0.8165

56

Pulmonary rales

0.8168

57

ECG evaluation

0.8167

58

ACE-inhibitors

0.8172

59

Serum creatinine

0.8168

60

Serum potassium

0.8170

61

CVP > 6 cm H20

0.8170

62

Cause of HF = “cardiomyopathy”

0.8167