Fourth model (AER, COP, TOT, M2/GDP, DINF/FINF, DUMMY)ARDL (3, 0, 2, 0, 3, 2)

Long-run coefficients

Coefficient

Variables

0.090

c

−0.587***

ARE_t−1

0.386***

COP_t−1

−0.233***

TOT_t−1

0.186***

M2/GDP_t−1

0.144

DINF/FINF_t−1

0.114***

DUMMY_t−1

Short−run Coefficients

0.465***

ARE_t−1

0.369***

ARE_t−2

−0.098*

D(TOT)

−0.180***

D(TOT_t−1)

0.046*

D(DINF/FINF)

0.110

D(DINF/FINF_t−1)

0.087

D(DINF/FINF_t−2)

0.311

D(DUMMY)

0.244**

D(DUMMY_t−1)

−0.587***

ECM_t−1

2.188

Durbin-Watson

−2.490

Akaike Information Criteria

0.136, P (0.933)

Juarque-Bera

F-statistic 1.109, P (2.15) 0.355

Breusch-Godfrey

F-statistic 0.701, P (15,18) 0.685

Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey