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| Lowest turning point | Upturn phase | Highest turning point | Downturn phase |
From the company’s perspective | Future expectations/ Profit outlook | · Positive trend · Increasing | · Positive · High | · Negative trend · Declining | · Negative · Low |
Debt burden | · High | · Declining due to an increasing cashflow (used for debt service) · Increasing due to gearing for transactions | · Constant in comparison to the upturn phase, with a trend towards increasing | · Increasing | |
Liquid assets | · Low | · Increasing | · Constant in comparison to the upturn phase, with a tend towards declining | · Declining until low | |
Cashflow | · Low | · Positive trend · Increasing | · High · Negative trend | · Declining | |
Valuation level | · Low | · Increasing | · High | · Declining | |
Purchase price/ Transaction premium | · Low | · Increasing | · High | · Declining | |
The macroeconomic perspective | Capital market/Stock exchange | · Low share prices | · Increasing share prices | · High point of the stock exchange · Declining trend | · Stock market crash · Decreasing share prices |
Economic growth/GDP | · Cyclical trough · trend towards recovery | · Upward tendency · Expansion | · Economic boom · Decreasing tendency | · Economic slowdown · Recession | |
Interest on borrowed capital | · Low | · Increasing | · High | · Decreasing · With a tendency—during the low point as well as during a long-lasting recession—to decrease further | |
Risk-free market interest rate | · Low | · Increasing | · High | · Decreasing | |
Market risk premium | · Low | · increasing | · High | · Decreasing—under the premise that the return assumptions are negative · increasing because of higher risk premiums caused by the crisis | |
Capital liquidity | · Low | · Increasing | · High | · Declining | |
Credit conditions | · Cheap | · More restrictive | · Constant in comparison with the upturn period | · Restrictive · With a tendency—during the low point as well as long-lasting recessions —towards improvement |