Individual approach (by risk class) | Integrated approach | ||||
A | B | C | A + B + C | B + C | |
(n, k) | |||||
Types of prior function | (150, 0) | (500, 1) | (350, 2) | (1000, 3) | (850, 3) |
1) Uniform distribution | |||||
1.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 0.67% | 0.40% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.28% | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.57% | 0.31% | 0.34% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.43 | 0.12 - 0.33 | 0.35 - 0.89 | 0.18 - 0.37 | 0.26 - 0.50 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.89 | 0.07 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.14 | 0.15 - 0.53 | 0.18 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.01 - 1.47 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.13 - 1.51 | 0.13 - 0.66 | 0.12 - 0.79 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.91 | 0.02 - 0.88 | 0.07 - 1.77 | 0.09 - 0.74 | 0.10 - 0.88 |
Standard deviation | 0.65% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
1.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 0.67% | 0.40% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.28% | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.57% | 0.31% | 0.34% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.43 | 0.12 - 0.33 | 0.35 - 0.89 | 0.18 - 0.37 | 0.26 - 0.50 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.89 | 0.07 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.14 | 0.15 - 0.53 | 0.18 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.01 - 1.47 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.13 - 1.51 | 0.13 - 0.66 | 0.12 - 0.79 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.91 | 0.02 - 0.88 | 0.07 - 1.77 | 0.09 - 0.74 | 0.10 - 0.88 |
Standard deviation | 0.65% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
1.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 0.67% | 0.40% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.28% | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.17% | 0.57% | 0.31% | 0.34% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.43 | 0.12 - 0.33 | 0.35 - 0.89 | 0.18 - 0.37 | 0.26 - 0.50 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.89 | 0.07 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.14 | 0.15 - 0.53 | 0.18 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.01 - 1.47 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.13 - 1.51 | 0.13 - 0.66 | 0.12 - 0.79 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.91 | 0.02 - 0.88 | 0.07 - 1.77 | 0.09 - 0.74 | 0.10 - 0.88 |
Standard deviation | 0.67% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.75 | 1.41 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
1.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.40% | 0.37% | 0.57% | 0.39% | 0.45% |
Median | 0.27% | 0.28% | 0.60% | 0.33% | 0.40% |
Mode | 0.01% | 0.20% | 0.63% | 0.30% | 0.35% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.27 | 0.10 - 0.32 | 0.41 - 0.76 | 0.20 - 0.37 | 0.27 - 0.48 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.54 | 0.05 - 0.49 | 0.36 - 0.90 | 0.17 - 0.53 | 0.18 - 0.59 |
90% | 0.01 - 0.79 | 0.03 - 0.64 | 0.30 - 1.00 | 0.13 - 0.63 | 0.13 - 0.73 |
95% | 0.00 - 0.86 | 0.02 - 0.77 | 0.21 - 1.00 | 0.10 - 0.70 | 0.11 - 0.81 |
Standard deviation | 0.27% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.19% | 0.20% |
Coefficient of skewness | 0.52 | 0.72 | −0.10 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
2) Linear growth | |||||
2.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 1.31% | 0.60% | 1.13% | 0.50% | 0.59% |
Median | 1.07% | 0.51% | 0.97% | 0.43% | 0.49% |
Mode | 0.64% | 0.38% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.46% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.29 - 1.23 | 0.27 - 0.58 | 0.54 - 1.17 | 0.30 - 0.53 | 0.35 - 0.63 |
75% | 0.16 - 1.79 | 0.17 - 0.78 | 0.37 - 1.53 | 0.23 - 0.64 | 0.25 - 0.76 |
90% | 0.07 - 2.53 | 0.11 - 1.03 | 0.29 - 1.93 | 0.16 - 0.78 | 0.21 - 0.95 |
95% | 0.03 - 3.03 | 0.06 - 1.23 | 0.23 - 2.21 | 0.13 - 0.92 | 0.15 - 1.07 |
Standard deviation | 0.92% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.22% | 0.26% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.37 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
2.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 1.31% | 0.60% | 1.13% | 0.50% | 0.59% |
Median | 1.07% | 0.51% | 0.97% | 0.43% | 0.49% |
Mode | 0.64% | 0.38% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.46% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.29 - 1.23 | 0.27 - 0.58 | 0.54 - 1.17 | 0.30 - 0.53 | 0.35 - 0.63 |
75% | 0.16 - 1.79 | 0.17 - 0.78 | 0.37 - 1.53 | 0.23 - 0.64 | 0.25 - 0.76 |
90% | 0.07 - 2.53 | 0.11 - 1.03 | 0.29 - 1.93 | 0.16 - 0.78 | 0.21 - 0.95 |
95% | 0.03 - 3.03 | 0.06 - 1.23 | 0.23 - 2.21 | 0.13 - 0.92 | 0.15 - 1.07 |
Standard deviation | 0.92% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.22% | 0.26% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.37 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
2.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 1.31% | 0.60% | 1.13% | 0.50% | 0.59% |
Median | 1.07% | 0.51% | 0.97% | 0.43% | 0.49% |
Mode | 0.64% | 0.38% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.46% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.29 - 1.23 | 0.27 - 0.58 | 0.54 - 1.17 | 0.30 - 0.53 | 0.35 - 0.63 |
75% | 0.16 - 1.79 | 0.17 - 0.78 | 0.37 - 1.53 | 0.23 - 0.64 | 0.25 - 0.76 |
90% | 0.07 - 2.53 | 0.11 - 1.03 | 0.29 - 1.93 | 0.16 - 0.78 | 0.21 - 0.95 |
95% | 0.03 - 3.03 | 0.06 - 1.23 | 0.23 - 2.21 | 0.13 - 0.92 | 0.15 - 1.07 |
Standard deviation | 0.92% | 0.34% | 0.56% | 0.22% | 0.26% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.37 | 1.14 | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.88 |
2.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.58% | 0.51% | 0.69% | 0.48% | 0.54% |
Median | 0.56% | 0.47% | 0.70% | 0.43% | 0.52% |
Mode | 0.64% | 0.39% | 0.85% | 0.38% | 0.46% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.49 - 0.87 | 0.24 - 0.55 | 0.73 - 1.00 | 0.31 - 0.53 | 0.36 - 0.59 |
75% | 0.38 - 1.00 | 0.19 - 0.73 | 0.57 - 1.00 | 0.23 - 0.63 | 0.28 - 0.73 |
90% | 0.27 - 1.00 | 0.17 - 0.87 | 0.43 - 1.00 | 0.17 - 0.77 | 0.23 - 0.87 |
95% | 0.17 - 1.00 | 0.13 - 0.93 | 0.33 - 1.00 | 0.17 - 0.87 | 0.20 - 0.93 |
Standard deviation | 0.25% | 0.23% | 0.21% | 0.20% | 0.21% |
Coefficient of skewness | −0.17 | 0.23 | −0.41 | 0.44 | 0.22 |
3) Linear decrease | |||||
3.1) u = 1 | |||||
Mean | 0.67% | 0.40% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.57% | 0.27% | 0.37% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.00 - 0.43 | 0.11 - 0.33 | 0.33 - 0.84 | 0.22 - 0.39 | 0.25 - 0.48 |
75% | 0.00 - 0.89 | 0.06 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.17 | 0.16 - 0.53 | 0.21 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.00 - 1.48 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.13 - 1.47 | 0.13 - 0.65 | 0.13 - 0.80 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.93 | 0.01 - 0.89 | 0.08 - 1.78 | 0.11 - 0.76 | 0.09 - 0.92 |
Standard deviation | 0.65% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
3.2) u = 0.25 | |||||
Mean | 0.66% | 0.40% | 0.84% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.29% | 0.70% | 0.32% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.18% | 0.56% | 0.27% | 0.35% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.00 - 0.41 | 0.11 - 0.33 | 0.34 - 0.83 | 0.22 - 0.39 | 0.25 - 0.48 |
75% | 0.00 - 0.84 | 0.06 - 0.53 | 0.25 - 1.15 | 0.16 - 0.53 | 0.21 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.00 - 1.39 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.14 - 1.42 | 0.13 - 0.65 | 0.13 - 0.80 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.81 | 0.01 - 0.89 | 0.09 - 1.68 | 0.11 - 0.76 | 0.09 - 0.92 |
Standard deviation | 0.64% | 0.28% | 0.48% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.13 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
3.3) u = 0.1 | |||||
Mean | 0.63% | 0.39% | 0.83% | 0.40% | 0.46% |
Median | 0.39% | 0.28% | 0.70% | 0.32% | 0.39% |
Mode | 0.01% | 0.18% | 0.54% | 0.27% | 0.31% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.00 - 0.40 | 0.11 - 0.33 | 0.34 - 0.82 | 0.22 - 0.39 | 0.23 - 0.46 |
75% | 0.00 - 0.83 | 0.06 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.11 | 0.16 - 0.53 | 0.18 - 0.60 |
90% | 0.00 - 1.38 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.12 - 1.36 | 0.13 - 0.65 | 0.11 - 0.77 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.79 | 0.01 - 0.89 | 0.08 - 1.61 | 0.11 - 0.76 | 0.08 - 0.89 |
Standard deviation | 0.61% | 0.27% | 0.47% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.85 | 1.40 | 1.13 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
3.4) u = 0.01 | |||||
Mean | 0.27% | 0.29% | 0.45% | 0.34% | 0.37% |
Median | 0.19% | 0.23% | 0.40% | 0.29% | 0.33% |
Mode | 0.03% | 0.17% | 0.38% | 0.27% | 0.30% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.00 - 0.18 | 0.10 - 0.27 | 0.28 - 0.53 | 0.17 - 0.37 | 0.23 - 0.40 |
75% | 0.00 - 0.37 | 0.07 - 0.39 | 0.18 - 0.63 | 0.13 - 0.43 | 0.17 - 0.47 |
90% | 0.00 - 0.53 | 0.03 - 0.50 | 0.13 - 0.73 | 0.10 - 0.53 | 0.13 - 0.63 |
95% | 0.00 - 0.67 | 0.01 - 0.58 | 0.10 - 0.77 | 0.09 - 0.63 | 0.08 - 0.67 |
Standard deviation | 0.20% | 0.18% | 0.20% | 0.16% | 0.17% |
Coefficient of skewness | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.57 |
4) Conservative | |||||
Mean | 0.68% | 0.40% | 0.85% | 0.40% | 0.47% |
Median | 0.43% | 0.31% | 0.73% | 0.33% | 0.42% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.54% | 0.27% | 0.35% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.43 | 0.09 - 0.33 | 0.36 - 0.90 | 0.20 - 0.39 | 0.27 - 0.48 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.87 | 0.07 - 0.53 | 0.23 - 1.16 | 0.15 - 0.53 | 0.20 - 0.63 |
90% | 0.01 - 1.49 | 0.03 - 0.73 | 0.13 - 1.48 | 0.13 - 0.64 | 0.13 - 0.77 |
95% | 0.00 - 1.97 | 0.02 - 0.90 | 0.08 - 1.74 | 0.09 - 0.75 | 0.10 - 0.89 |
Standard deviation | 0.66% | 0.28% | 0.49% | 0.20% | 0.23% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.96 | 1.41 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 0.99 |
5) Immoderate | |||||
Mean | 0.21% | 0.22% | 0.57% | 0.30% | 0.35% |
Median | 0.07% | 0.11% | 0.43% | 0.22% | 0.24% |
Mode | 0.03% | 0.03% | 0.29% | 0.20% | 0.22% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.05 | 0.03 - 0.12 | 0.11 - 0.48 | 0.12 - 0.26 | 0.17 - 0.34 |
75% | 0.02 - 0.17 | 0.02 - 0.25 | 0.07 - 0.76 | 0.10 - 0.38 | 0.10 - 0.46 |
90% | 0.01 - 0.47 | 0.01 - 0.42 | 0.02 - 1.04 | 0.06 - 0.51 | 0.07 - 0.60 |
95% | 0.00 - 0.75 | 0.00 - 0.54 | 0.01 - 1.28 | 0.02 - 0.59 | 0.05 - 0.73 |
Standard deviation | 0.31% | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.17% | 0.20% |
Coefficient of skewness | 3.74 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
6) Expert judgement | |||||
6.1) Base scenario | |||||
Mean | 2.08% | 1.45% | 1.76% | 1.26% | 1.31% |
Median | 1.90% | 1.32% | 1.61% | 1.19% | 1.23% |
Mode | 1.67% | 1.20% | 1.44% | 1.11% | 1.15% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 1.36 - 2.12 | 1.13 - 1.37 | 1.20 - 1.71 | 1.10 - 1.22 | 1.10 - 1.23 |
75% | 1.20 - 2.48 | 1.07 - 1.54 | 1.13 - 2.02 | 1.05 - 1.31 | 1.06 - 1.40 |
90% | 1.10 - 2.97 | 1.03 - 1.82 | 1.07 - 2.36 | 1.03 - 1.47 | 1.03 - 1.54 |
95% | 1.05 - 3.33 | 1.01 - 1.98 | 1.01 - 2.59 | 1.02 - 1.56 | 1.01 - 1.67 |
Standard deviation | 0.68% | 0.30% | 0.46% | 0.17% | 0.21% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.98 | 1.31 | 1.27 |
6.2) Beta distribution as a proxy | |||||
Mean | 2.01% | 1.13% | 1.63% | 0.82% | 0.94% |
Median | 1.84% | 1.03% | 1.53% | 0.75% | 0.86% |
Mode | 1.70% | 0.97% | 1.42% | 0.71% | 0.83% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 1.29 - 2.20 | 0.77 - 1.21 | 1.12 - 1.80 | 0.58 - 0.87 | 0.69 - 1.01 |
75% | 1.03 - 2.66 | 0.60 - 1.45 | 0.91 - 2.08 | 0.50 - 1.02 | 0.54 - 1.20 |
90% | 0.80 - 3.17 | 0.49 - 1.73 | 0.77 - 2.47 | 0.41 - 1.18 | 0.46 - 1.34 |
95% | 0.65 - 3.47 | 0.42 - 1.88 | 0.67 - 2.69 | 0.36 - 1.27 | 0.39 - 1.50 |
Standard deviation | 0.77% | 0.40% | 0.55% | 0.26% | 0.30% |
Coefficient of skewness | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
6.3) Normal distribution as a proxy | |||||
Mean | 0.91% | 0.45% | 0.98% | 0.43% | 0.51% |
Median | 0.67% | 0.30% | 0.84% | 0.36% | 0.41% |
Mode | 0.02% | 0.22% | 0.70% | 0.33% | 0.35% |
Highest density interval | |||||
50% | 0.03 - 0.67 | 0.12 - 0.43 | 0.41 - 1.03 | 0.23 - 0.42 | 0.26 - 0.51 |
75% | 0.02 - 1.24 | 0.06 - 0.59 | 0.30 - 1.35 | 0.16 - 0.54 | 0.18 - 0.67 |
90% | 0.01 - 1.97 | 0.03 - 0.82 | 0.17 - 1.70 | 0.11 - 0.73 | 0.12 - 0.83 |
95% | 0.00 - 2.46 | 0.01 - 1.03 | 0.12 - 2.01 | 0.10 - 0.80 | 0.07 - 0.95 |
Standard deviation | 0.80% | 0.31% | 0.54% | 0.21% | 0.25% |
Coefficient of skewness | 1.47 | 1.34 | 1.01 | 0.98 | 0.97 |