]0%; 1%[

[1%; 7.5%]

]7.5%; 100%[

Total

Binomial likelihood

Cumulative density

24.1%

71.3%

4.6%

100.0%

Mean

0.14%

2.04%

0.45%

2.64%

Uniform distribution, $\lambda \in \left]0,\text{1}\right[$

Posterior

Cumulative density

24.1%

71.3%

4.6%

100.0%

Mean

0.14%

2.04%

0.45%

2.64%

Prior

Cumulative density

1.0%

6.5%

92.5%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

0.3%

49.7%

50.0%

Linear growth, $\lambda \in \left]0,\text{1}\right[$

Posterior

Cumulative density

5.3%

77.4%

17.2%

100.0%

Mean

0.04%

2.87%

1.81%

4.72%

Prior

Cumulative density

0.0%

0.6%

99.4%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

0.0%

66.6%

66.7%

Linear decrease, $\lambda \in \left]0,\text{1}\right[$

Posterior

Cumulative density

24.6%

71.2%

4.2%

100.0%

Mean

0.14%

2.02%

0.42%

2.58%

Prior

Cumulative density

1.9%

12.5%

85.6%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

0.5%

32.8%

33.3%

Conservative

Posterior

Cumulative density

23.6%

71.5%

4.9%

100.0%

Mean

0.14%

2.06%

0.49%

2.69%

Prior

Cumulative density

0.1%

0.8%

99.1%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

0.0%

88.3%

88.4%

Immoderate

Posterior

Cumulative density

63.7%

35.8%

0.5%

100.0%

Mean

0.26%

0.78%

0.05%

1.09%

Prior

Cumulative density

46.2%

23.7%

30.1%

100.0%

Mean

0.1%

0.8%

10.8%

11.6%

Expert judgement

Base scenario (#)

Posterior

Cumulative density

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Mean

0.00%

2.94%

0.00%

2.94%

Prior

Cumulative density

0.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

3.7%

0.0%

3.7%

Beta distribution as a proxy

Posterior

Cumulative density

0.9%

98.9%

0.1%

100.0%

Mean

0.01%

2.95%

0.01%

2.97%

Prior

Cumulative density

0.4%

98.5%

1.1%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

3.6%

0.1%

3.7%

Normal distribution as a proxy

Posterior

Cumulative density

14.6%

84.9%

0.5%

100.0%

Mean

0.09%

2.48%

0.04%

2.61%

Prior

Cumulative density

6.7%

88.9%

4.4%

100.0%

Mean

0.0%

3.5%

0.4%

3.9%