Hypothesis

Evidence

Satisfies hypothesis (Event occurs) ω

Dissatisfies hypothesis (Event does not occur) ¬ω

Summative

Has evidence χ

P(ω|χ)·P(χ) = P(E|ω)·P(ω)

P(¬ω|χ)·P(χ) = P(χ|¬ω)·P(¬ω)

P(χ)

No evidence ¬χ

P(ω|¬χ)·P(¬χ) = P(¬χ|ω)·P(ω)

P(¬ω|¬χ)·P(¬χ) = P(¬χ|¬ω)·P(¬ω)

P(¬χ) = 1 − P(χ)

Total

P(ω)

P(¬ω) = 1 − P(ω)

1