Volatility proxy | Loss function | Forecasting horizons | Forecasting strategies | ||||
Benchmark | Student t | Skew student | 1-year | 3-year | |||
| innovation | t innovation | rolling window | rolling window | |||
TSRV | QL | 1 day | 0.6493 | −0.623 | 1.325*** | −2.841 | −9.433 |
|
| 1 week | 0.6663 | −0.631 | 1.851* | −1.889 | −1.887 |
|
| 2 weeks | 0.6955 | −0.764 | 1.537 | 12.977** | −3.717 |
|
| 1 month | 0.6840 | −1.598 | 2.848 | 9.392* | 4.228 |
| MSE | 1 day | 2.9401 | −1.867 | 1.957 *** | 2.62 | 1.637 |
|
| 1 week | 3.1413 | −1.983 | 3.457 * | 2.695 | 1.847 |
|
| 2 weeks | 3.4482 | −2.174 | 4.871 * | 2.739 | 2.041 |
|
| 1 month | 3.5297 | −3.586 | 9.396 | 5.238 | −4.887 |
5 min-RV | QL | 1 day | 0.6850 | −0.547 | 1.251*** | 7.774 | −2.067 |
|
| 1 week | 0.7117 | −0.603 | 1.651** | 6.831** | 0.412 |
|
| 2 weeks | 0.7367 | −0.764 | 1.464** | 4.909* | 1.715 |
|
| 1 month | 0.7123 | −1.633 | 2.856* | 3.399 | 2.011 |
| MSE | 1 day | 3.0498 | −1.827 | 1.92** | 2.725 | 1.774 |
|
| 1 week | 3.2620 | −1.971 | 3.36*** | 2.972 | 2.199 |
|
| 2 weeks | 3.6500 | −2.196 | 4.739* | 3.439 | 2.819 |
|
| 1 month | 3.5922 | −3.606 | 9.288* | 6.131** | 5.817* |