Volatility proxy | Loss function | Forecasting horizons | Forecasting strategies | ||||
Benchmark | Student t | Skew student | 1-year | 3-year | |||
| innovation | t innovation | rolling window | rolling window | |||
TSRV | QL | 1 day | 0.7845 | −0.479 | 0.07 | −31.762 | −24.622 |
|
| 1 week | 0.7934 | 0.065 | 0.296 | −27.737 | −20.698 |
|
| 2 weeks | 0.7919 | 1.076 | 0.949 | −24.481 | −19.202 |
|
| 1 month | 0.8134 | 3.159 | 2.861 | −18.84 | −14.713 |
| MSE | 1 day | 1.0104 | −1.551 | −0.644 | −10.879 | −11.09 |
|
| 1 week | 0.9711 | −2.262 | −1.353 | −7.15 | −7.377 |
|
| 2 weeks | 0.9404 | −2.196 | −1.378 | −3.978 | −4.177 |
|
| 1 month | 0.9117 | −1.091 | −0.599 | 0.422 | 0.606 |
5 min-RV | QL | 1 day | 1.5773 | 2.874** | 2.751** | −83.341 | −60.638 |
|
| 1 week | 1.5629 | 1.755 | 2.424 | −78.156 | −59.202 |
|
| 2 weeks | 1.5731 | 1.046 | 2.098 | −66.311 | −54.694 |
|
| 1 month | 1.5985 | 1.333 | 3.091 | −54.484 | −45.779 |
| MSE | 1 day | 9.9207 | 0.506 | 0.48 | −0.237 | −0.124 |
|
| 1 week | 9.8953 | 0.277 | 0.235 | −0.659 | −0.558 |
|
| 2 weeks | 9.8754 | 0.104 | 0.057 | −1.046 | −0.983 |
|
| 1 month | 9.8993 | −0.177 | −0.223 | −1.342 | −1.282 |