Probability (%) of actual injury number > kTLV

Method

kTLV = 10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Monte Carlo

simulation results

15.24

8.70

4.66

2.32

1.08

0.466

0.188

Prediction using

binomial distribution

15.08

8.57

4.51

2.21

1.01

0.428

0.171